Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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551 FXUS62 KMFL 121755 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 155 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A pretty sloppy setup this afternoon as precipitation overspreads South Florida. A frontal boundary remains stalled out over central Florida this afternoon as a few shortwave impulses pivot into the area and interact with the anomalous tropical moisture (PWATs 2.3-2.5 inches) that remains pooled over the area. Areas of the interior have already seen broad swatches of 4-8 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, while the East Coast has just begun to see accumulations increase with 2-4 inches across portions of Miami- Dade and Broward counties. As rainfall continues, portions of the region could see several additional inches, enhancing the concern for considerable flash flooding especially for areas that already saw 4-6 inches of rain on Tuesday. The possibility for severe weather (tornadoes and gusty winds) also remains a secondary threat through the evening. Some of the discrete cells today have shown rotation signatures and ACARS soundings support a threat for additional quick spin-up tornadoes. With ample cloud coverage and precipitation over the area, high temperatures will remain in low-mid 80s over much of the region. The only notable change to the synoptic pattern on Thursday will be the development of an intensifying sfc. low over the stalled boundary to our north, just off the SE Coast. This low (which may eventually acquire subtropical characteristics over the Gulf Stream) will shift NE in the late week period, but looks to at least in the short term keep the subtropical moisture tap in place over our area through Thursday (i.e. the classic cyclone moisture tail). With the potential for significant additional rainfall (HREF PMMs would indicate areas of 2-4 inch totals possible) and likely saturated ground made the decision to extend the Flood Watch through Thursday evening with this morning update. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 An active subtropical jetstream will become entrenched over central Florida, just downstream of a positively tilted major short-wave trough that will impart on the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for a fetch of deep tropical moisture to remain entrenched over South Florida, thus resulting in a prolonged period of widespread rainfall will continue through the remainder of the week. Hydrologic concerns will be the primary focus through the remainder of the week, primarily owing to antecedent rainfall from previous days, and the repeated bouts of strong thunderstorms capable of producing very high tropical rainfall rates. With precipitable water remaining above 2.0 inches, expect favorable conditions for flooding and even flashing flooding - particularly for urban locations. The most intense rainfall will develop in tandem with upper level impulses that trek through the CWA through this period. As far as rainfall totals through Friday, expect 4-8 inches for the western half of the region, and 2-6 inches for the eastern half of CWA (including metropolitan east coast), with locally higher totals possible. These totals are subject to deviate based on how the forecast evolves in the coming days. A stationary frontal boundary will gradually dissolve, as low-level circulations develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico and coastal FL/GA respectively. This will likely stretch/divert moisture away in opposite directions away from the region, though there will still be lingering deep tropical moisture such that heavy rainfall will still be a concern through the weekend. By late Saturday/early Sunday, a backing of low-level winds will be realized as expansive Bermuda ridge of high pressure expands southwestward. An easterly flow regime will likely become re-established, which will allow for periods of heavy rainfall in the morning along the east coast, with more coverage generally along interior and western portions of the CWA. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be the primary concerns again, though the threat should be diminished in comparison to earlier in the week. Nevertheless, cannot rule out the potential for flooding through the weekend, mostly conditional on measured rainfall up to this point. High temperatures will begin to increase slightly through the period with mid 80s expected on Friday and slightly increasing each afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 90s again by the Tuesday- Wednesday time frame. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 All terminals could continue to experience periods of MVFR/IFR conditions this afternoon as repeated rounds of SHRA/TSRA overspread across South FL. IFR TEMPOs from 18-22Z may need to be amended/extended as conditions evolve, with LIFR restrictions possible as well. Rain chances decrease overnight, but a few rounds of SHRA could still impact terminals through the night. Outside of storm outflows generally southerly winds - gusty at times - will prevail through the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Near cautionary southerly winds will persist over the area waters today as the area remains south of a stalled front and associated surface low. These winds will decrease Thursday into the late week period as the low progresses northeast into the Atlantic waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms remain likely through much of the upcoming week resulting in periods of locally higher winds and seas. Outside of storms wave heights should remain 3 ft or less through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 85 76 86 / 90 80 90 100 West Kendall 75 87 74 87 / 100 80 90 100 Opa-Locka 77 87 76 88 / 90 80 90 100 Homestead 76 87 75 86 / 100 80 90 90 Fort Lauderdale 77 84 77 86 / 90 80 90 100 N Ft Lauderdale 77 85 76 87 / 90 80 90 100 Pembroke Pines 77 88 77 89 / 90 80 90 100 West Palm Beach 75 85 75 87 / 80 90 90 100 Boca Raton 76 86 76 87 / 90 80 90 100 Naples 77 86 76 86 / 80 90 100 100 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr/ATV LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...ATV