186
FXUS62 KMFL 221640
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1240 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

With the mid-level shortwave continuing to propagate to the east
today, 500mb flow is veering to a more northerly direction and
temperatures aloft have begun to warm. Combined with background
northeasterly surface flow prevailing, sea-breeze circulations
will favor convective initiation across the southern inland
portions of our area once again. With the Atlantic sea-breeze
progressing further inland, the greatest convective activity will
center over inland/suburban Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and
Collier Counties this afternoon albeit with less coverage. 500mb
temperatures will be in the -5 to -7 C range today. This will keep
the majority of thunderstorm activity in the garden variety form,
although localized ascent along boundary collisions could still
support the potential of a quick pulse isolated strong to severe
capable of a wet microburst if the storm pulses up and collapses
in a quick fashion. High temperatures will range from the upper
80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to mid 90s
across southwestern Florida.

By Thursday, the mid-level ridge will continue to build and remain
centered over the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame as the
aforementioned shortwave remains in the western Atlantic waters.
Between these two synoptic features, South Florida will remain in a
light northerly 500mb flow regime with a lack of synoptic forcing
across the area with the subtropical jet located well to the north
of our region. At the surface, ridging situated over the
southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds
across the region. Therefore, with a lack of the aforementioned
synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze
circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable
locations for convective initiation and coverage which will mainly
focus across inland areas during the afternoon hours. Typical
thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will
be possible, but still cannot rule out isolated strong to severe
pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized
maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of
a fairly benign pattern.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The mesoscale driven weather pattern will continue for much of
the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place
and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With
the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface
flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to
feature the hottest temperatures across inland areas as well as
the Lake Okeechobee region for the time being. With reinforcing
subsidence aloft, rain chances will remain fairly limited (20-30%
PoPs) across the region. High temperatures for the rest of the
week will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east
coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s
across southwestern Florida. By the weekend, the ridge of high
pressure will further strengthen across the region which will lead
to the continued warming trend across the area. High temperatures
for Memorial Day Weekend will vary from the low to mid 90s along
both coasts of South Florida with values in the upper 90s
potentially nearing 100 across inland areas. If you have outdoor
plans for Memorial Day Weekend, be sure to keep a close eye on the
forecast based on your location and take precautions to protect
against heat-related illnesses if you will be doing
strenuous/long-duration activity outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period with easterly flow
expected. A few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon
although the vast majority of activity should remain further
inland. L/V flow is expected to return overnight. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters
throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be
possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across local
waters.
&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

With onshore wind flow returning to the east coast of South Florida,
a gradual increase in rip current risks will continue across the
east coast through the remainder of the work-week. A moderate risk
of rip currents remains in place for Palm Beach County beaches
today.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
West Kendall     74  91  74  93 /  20  30  20  20
Opa-Locka        76  91  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
Homestead        77  89  76  91 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  77  90  77  89 /  10  30  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  76  91  76  90 /  10  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   77  91  77  94 /  10  30  10  20
West Palm Beach  73  89  73  91 /   0  20  10  20
Boca Raton       76  89  76  91 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           75  92  77  92 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Rizzuto