997
FXUS62 KMFL 272323
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The center of a mid-level ridge will spread over South Florida
today, maintaining the hot and largely dry conditions over the
area. While isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
over the Interior and East Coast late this afternoon along the sea
breeze, most areas will see a rain-free holiday thanks to the dry
mid-levels and subsidence. The main story today will be the high
temperatures, which will likely approach daily records, reaching
the mid to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the
immediate coast). Although peak heat indices will likely reach
triple digits, the airmass should be dry enough to keep peak head
indices below heat headline criteria.

The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the
eastern CONUS, while a cold front will move into northern Florida
(and then largely stall for the mid-week period). Given
increasing synoptic ascent of the trough, and the seasonably hot
and unstable airmass south of the front, increased convective
activity is expected with scattered to even perhaps numerous
showers and thunderstorms. The synoptic flow will remain westerly
so the mesoscale convective focus should once again be the East
Coast sea breeze and Interior areas. Given that highs will once
again reach the mid 90s across the area, steep low-lvl lapse
rates and abundant DCAPE may allow a few storms to produce strong
wet microbursts. With the flow aloft remaining modest, this strong
to severe thunderstorm threat would be fairly isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

More of a typical summertime pattern will be in the place for the
middle to end of the work week. Several impulses will move around
the base of a longwave trough moving across the eastern US. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will slowly sag south across the state
of FL. The increase in deep moisture and instability will result in
more typical PoPs for this time of year (30-50%) with scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening
aided by the sea-breezes, and scattered showers and storms over the
waters each night occasionally impacting the Atlantic coastal areas.
By Saturday the long wave trough moves off to the east and mid/upper
level ridging temporarily builds in the area. Questionable this far
out if this will help push the front southwards into the Straits
which would lower PoPs for Saturday across South FL, or if the front
will continue to linger over the area.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal through the weekend
with highs generally in the low to mid 90s across the metro and mid
to upper 90s inland through Friday. Overnight lows will be around 70
near the lake to mid and upper 70s closer to the coasts. As the low
level flow becomes more northeasterly next weekend, it will provide
some minor relief with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the east coast metro, and low to mid 90s over interior SW FL. Max
heat indices will still be in the 100-105 range through Friday, and
then into the mid and upper 90s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail at all terminals through the
night. Winds become light and variable overnight before veering SW
in the morning, then SSE at eastern sites and westerly at KAPF
tomorrow afternoon. Light scattered showers are possible in the
morning hours. There will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms as the day progresses with best chances at the
eastern TAF sites. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions as ceilings and
visibility will decrease with passing storms.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Overall light to moderate S-SE flow will continue through the
middle of the week over the Atlantic waters. There may be a brief
period of cautionary winds this afternoon and early evening
across the northern Atlantic waters, but seas will remain low.
The Gulf waters will likely see more westerly flow through the
period, particularly over the near-shore waters in the afternoon
given the onshore progression of the Gulf breeze each afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with
increasing storm chances Tuesday and through the middle of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  79  93 /  30  50  50  50
West Kendall     77  94  75  95 /  20  50  50  40
Opa-Locka        79  94  78  94 /  30  50  50  50
Homestead        79  92  76  93 /  20  40  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  92  78  92 /  30  50  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  78  93 /  30  50  50  50
Pembroke Pines   81  96  79  96 /  30  50  50  50
West Palm Beach  78  95  75  93 /  20  50  50  40
Boca Raton       79  94  76  93 /  30  50  50  50
Naples           79  92  78  93 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Simmons