Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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492 FXUS62 KMFL 271800 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The center of a mid-level ridge will spread over South Florida today, maintaining the hot and largely dry conditions over the area. While isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the Interior and East Coast late this afternoon along the sea breeze, most areas will see a rain-free holiday thanks to the dry mid-levels and subsidence. The main story today will be the high temperatures, which will likely approach daily records, reaching the mid to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the immediate coast). Although peak heat indices will likely reach triple digits, the airmass should be dry enough to keep peak head indices below heat headline criteria. The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the eastern CONUS, while a cold front will move into northern Florida (and then largely stall for the mid-week period). Given increasing synoptic ascent of the trough, and the seasonably hot and unstable airmass south of the front, increased convective activity is expected with scattered to even perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms. The synoptic flow will remain westerly so the mesoscale convective focus should once again be the East Coast sea breeze and Interior areas. Given that highs will once again reach the mid 90s across the area, steep low-lvl lapse rates and abundant DCAPE may allow a few storms to produce strong wet microbursts. With the flow aloft remaining modest, this strong to severe thunderstorm threat would be fairly isolated. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 More of a typical summertime pattern will be in the place for the middle to end of the work week. Several impulses will move around the base of a longwave trough moving across the eastern US. At the surface, a frontal boundary will slowly sag south across the state of FL. The increase in deep moisture and instability will result in more typical PoPs for this time of year (30-50%) with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening aided by the sea-breezes, and scattered showers and storms over the waters each night occasionally impacting the Atlantic coastal areas. By Saturday the long wave trough moves off to the east and mid/upper level ridging temporarily builds in the area. Questionable this far out if this will help push the front southwards into the Straits which would lower PoPs for Saturday across South FL, or if the front will continue to linger over the area. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through the weekend with highs generally in the low to mid 90s across the metro and mid to upper 90s inland through Friday. Overnight lows will be around 70 near the lake to mid and upper 70s closer to the coasts. As the low level flow becomes more northeasterly next weekend, it will provide some minor relief with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the east coast metro, and low to mid 90s over interior SW FL. Max heat indices will still be in the 100-105 range through Friday, and then into the mid and upper 90s next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions will generally prevail at all terminals through tonight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out this afternoon, but chances are very low. SE to SSE winds through this evening, except westerly winds at KAPF with the sea breeze. There will be better chances for showers and thunderstorms at the east coast terminals on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Overall light to moderate S-SE flow will continue through the middle of the week over the Atlantic waters. There may be a brief period of cautionary winds this afternoon and early evening across the northern Atlantic waters, but seas will remain low. The Gulf waters will likely see more westerly flow through the period, particularly over the near-shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of the Gulf breeze each afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with increasing storm chances Tuesday and through the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 93 79 93 / 30 50 50 50 West Kendall 77 94 75 95 / 20 50 50 40 Opa-Locka 79 94 78 94 / 30 50 50 50 Homestead 79 92 76 93 / 20 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 92 78 92 / 30 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 78 93 / 30 50 50 50 Pembroke Pines 81 96 79 96 / 30 50 50 50 West Palm Beach 78 95 75 93 / 20 50 50 40 Boca Raton 79 94 76 93 / 30 50 50 50 Naples 79 92 78 93 / 20 20 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...Culver