759
FXUS62 KMFL 220630
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
230 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

As mid-level high pressure extends from over the Gulf of Mexico
and the frontal boundary remains stalled to the south of the
Florida Keys, a drier atmosphere will remain over South Florida.
However, with a light, northerly flow, there will be plentiful
moisture in the region with PWATs ~1.5 to 1.7". Therefore, the sea
and lake breezes that develop and advance inland will help ignite
a locally moist airmass that could support convection today and
Monday. However, activity will be much more limited in coverage
and intensity compared to what we`ve received recently. As the
area of high pressure shifts eastward, the pressure gradient
across the region will tighten, which will allow for easterly
wind flow to increase through the start of the week. With less
cloud cover and convection, high temperatures will be just above
normal in the upper 80s to lower/mid 90s. Heat indices are
forecast each afternoon to approach heat advisory criteria in the
triple digits, but should remain just below necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Models begin the long term with a mid-level ridge over the GOMEX
gradually migrating east and across the region through around the
middle of the work week. At the same time, the dominant high
pressure system centered over the SEc CONUS also migrates eastward
into the W Atlantic, while a remnant frontal boundary continues to
linger over the Florida Keys. As these synoptic features move closer
to each other, pressure gradients across the area will become
tighter, with sfc wind speeds gradually increasing. Flow veers to a
more SSE flow by the end of the work week, with breezy periods
expected each day.

In terms of chances for rain, the influence of the aforementioned
mid level ridge will combine with the high pressure to the north of
the peninsula to keep a drier air mass in place on Tuesday. With the
lingering boundary over the Florida keys, POPs for Tuesday afternoon
remain in the 20-40 percent range, with the highest chances over the
west coast and the southern tip of Florida. Sea breezes may again
become focal points for deep convection and thunderstorm activity
during the afternoon hours.

The forecast scenario for the rest of the long term becomes rather
complicated as uncertainty increases towards the end of the work
week. Long range models remain divergent regarding potential and
timing of possible tropical development over the west GOMEX.
Regardless of the final outcome, there is enough consensus about a
plume of tropical moisture over the west caribbean reaching the
peninsula and bringing increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage for
SoFlo. POPs increase into the 50-60 percent range for the Wed-Fri
timeframe, with possible widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours.
Highest level of uncertainty remains in the forecast scenario for
the weekend, which will continue to evolve as new model guidance
becomes available.

High temperatures on Tuesday should generally remain in the lower
90s, then slightly cooler for the rest of the week as cloud cover
and shower activity increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions likely at all TAF sites through Sunday. Winds will
be light and variable overnight and in the morning before turning
E/NE in the afternoon at the eastern TAF sites. KAPF winds will
become W/NW with the Gulf breeze through the afternoon. Mostly dry
conditions with a chance for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm in the mid to late afternoon at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Generally light winds will continue through Sunday with a
decaying frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers
and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues
to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Can`t rule out
a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Brief periods
of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms. Winds will veer easterly and strengthen next week as the
pressure gradient across the region tightens.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as
northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases today, but we
could still see some minor coastal flooding during high tide. The
Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through this evening.
Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the
Palm Beaches during the next couple of days.

High Tide Tides...
Virginia Key - 1:13 PM Sun
South Port Everglades - 12:30 PM Sun
Lake Worth Pier - 12:14 PM Sun
Naples Bay, North - 3:32 AM Sun, 5:50 PM Sun
Flamingo Visitors Center - 6:25 AM Sun, 7:53 PM Sun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
West Kendall     93  75  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
Opa-Locka        92  77  92  78 /  20  20  30  20
Homestead        90  77  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  77  89  78 /  20  20  30  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  78  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
Pembroke Pines   93  78  92  78 /  20  20  30  20
West Palm Beach  90  77  90  78 /  20  20  30  20
Boca Raton       91  77  91  78 /  20  20  30  30
Naples           91  77  92  76 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...JS