539
FXUS62 KMFL 201147
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
747 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Models depict a rather large area of enhanced moisture associated
with a weak short wave trough over the SW Atl gradually migrating
towards the region. This feature will bring higher PWATs and
increasing low-lvl moisture, with the bulk of the moisture starting
to reach the central portions of the peninsula by this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a deep-layered ridge remains in place across the SE CONUS
and keeping modest to robust east to east-northeast over SoFlo. This
will result in continuing passing showers and thunderstorms
generally moving east-to-west, but with highest POPs increasing into
the 55-60 percent range by this afternoon.

Expect scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms first
moving or developing around east coast metro areas, then pushing
into the interior and western portions of SoFlo by mid afternoon.
Collier/M-Monroe show best chances with POPs around 60. Main hazards
include lightning strikes, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.

For Friday, the synoptic scenario remains generally the same but
with the aforementioned ridge becoming more flatten by the
approaching trough. This will veer somewhat winds to a more SE
flow, which will help in concentrating showers and thunderstorm
activity towards the Lake region in the afternoon hours. But
overall coverage will become more widespread than today. Also, the
situation regarding the weak trough in the Atlantic, Invest 92L,
will continue to be closely monitored as any changes in its
development could result in significant changes to the forecast
outlook.

Despite the increased cloudiness/rain/storm activity,
temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across SoFlo.
Today heat index values will remain in the upper 90s for much of
the area, with low 100s over Gulf coast locations. Friday will
exhibit higher indices with low-mid 100s across the board.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Friday Night through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern at the
start of the extended period will be characterized by mid-level
ridging centered over the southeastern CONUS and troughing over
the western US. This pattern will essentially reverse itself
Sunday into early next week, as the ridge retrogrades into the
southwestern US and longwave troughing amplifies over the eastern
US. At the surface, high pressure near Bermuda will remain the
main feature of interest through the weekend maintaining moderate
E/SE low-level flow over South Florida. Towards the end of the
extended period, the aforementioned high will shift eastward
resulting in sea-breeze driven circulations prevailing by early
next week.

In terms of sensible weather, shower/storm evolution will largely
follow those of a typical easterly regime through the weekend
with the best rain chances initially over the Atlantic waters and
east coast in the morning and early afternoon, followed by the
risk of showers and storms increasing on the west coast later in
the afternoon as the Gulf breeze moves inland. Overall, rain
chances look to be in the high-end chance to low-end likely (PoPs
~ 45-60%) range through this period, with near to just above climo
deep-layer moisture (PWATs ~1.9-2.2"), will partially offset
synoptic subsidence from the ridge. As the large-scale easterly
flow weakens early next week, the models continue to indicate the
diurnal evolution of daily storms shifting to become more
interior-focused.

Temperatures will be just above seasonal and quite consistent
through the weekend and into the new week. High temperatures will be
in the upper 80s to mid-90s with heat indices peaking around 103-
107.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period as robust
easterly winds prevail. Scattered SHRA early this morning could
result in brief periods of MVFR conditions along East Coast
sites. TSRA will be possible in the afternoon, but impacts will be
most likely for KAPF. Conditions improve overnight, but VCTS is
likely for all sites once again tomorrow as winds shift from the
southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Winds begin relaxing a little with both wind speeds and seas
gradually dropping to below advisory criteria on both sides of the
peninsula later today. The SCA will expire this morning for the
Gulf, and in the early afternoon for the Atlantic waters. Moderate
E/ESE winds will prevail through the end of the work week, but
brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds will accompany any
thunderstorm that forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Persisting robust coastal easterly winds will keep a high risk of
rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches through Friday, then
relaxing enough for risk level to drop to moderate during the
weekend. Surf should also gradually decrease today and tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  78  90  81 /  50  20  50  40
West Kendall     89  76  91  79 /  50  20  50  40
Opa-Locka        89  78  91  81 /  50  10  50  30
Homestead        88  78  89  80 /  50  20  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  79  88  81 /  50  20  50  40
N Ft Lauderdale  88  78  89  81 /  60  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   90  79  92  81 /  50  10  50  30
West Palm Beach  88  76  90  79 /  60  10  50  20
Boca Raton       88  77  90  81 /  60  20  50  30
Naples           92  74  92  78 /  60  20  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650-
     670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV