038
FXUS62 KMFL 161738
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
138 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves into the Carolinas as a mid-
level trough sits over the southeastern United States. High pressure
over the northeastern United States will block a path north for the
remnants of Eight as it becomes absorbed into a developing mid-level
low and an associated frontal boundary currently north of our area
advances across the peninsula of Florida tonight into Tuesday. The
warm, wet, and unsettled pattern will continue through the short
term period thanks to the aforementioned synoptic scale features,
diurnally-driven sea breezes, and continued rich low-level moisture.

Some vigorous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the
primary concerns being strong to locally damaging wind gusts and
localized flooding due to excessive rainfall. Boundary interactions
today and again on Tuesday could provide a focus for more vigorous
convection. More cloud cover earlier on Tuesday compared to previous
days could help keep heat index values in check and potentially end
the string of Heat Advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The mid-level low across the southeastern United States will
gradually lift northward through the mid-week period which will
veer 500mb flow across the region to a westerly then northwesterly
direction. The elongation of troughing over the eastern United
States will keep 500mb temperatures in the -6C to -7C range during
the mid-week period with forecasted daily afternoon lapse rates
in the 5.5 to 6.0 C/km range. At the surface, we will remain
situated to the south of the weak yet quite persistent stationary
boundary still draped across Central Florida. Ample precipitable
water (PWAT) values of 2.0+ inches and a fairly moist saturated
column will result in daily afternoon rain chances near
climatological norms. The prevailing weak surface winds and the
generally westerly flow aloft will keep a rain pattern favoring
SoFlos interior and eastern metro areas. Deeper convection will
again focus along sea breeze and outflow boundaries mainly in the
afternoon hours, with the continued potential of a few isolated
strong to marginally severe pulse storms when ascent is briefly
maximized along those aforementioned mesoscale boundaries.
Afternoon highs are expected to moderate a little and remain near
seasonal normals (upper 80s to low 90s). However, peak heat
indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should
remain just below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As the sea breezes develop and advance inland slowly, the highest
risk for sub-VFR comes in the afternoon hours. Short-fused AMDs for
IFR/LIFR may be necessary for directly impacted terminals. Light
wind flow will prevail through much of the period turning onshore
briefly with the sea breezes in the afternoon. Conditions should
improve to VFR late evening into the overnight though some patchy
inland fog/low stratus is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most of
this week as a weak surface boundary and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight remain north of the area. Seas across the northern Atlantic
waters will remain elevated through this afternoon as northerly
swell generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight offshore of the
southeastern United States moves in. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could
lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Ongoing northerly swell associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight and its remnants will result in a continued elevated rip
current risk through the middle part of the work week along the
Atlantic beaches of South Florida as the swell gradually subsides.

There will also be the continued potential for minor coastal
flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher
tides associated with this full moon through mid-week. A Coastal
Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday.

High Tide Times:

* Naples: 12:05 pm Monday, 1:01 am Tuesday, 12:56 pm Tuesday
* Lake Worth: 7:27 pm Monday, 7:46 am Tuesday, 8:14 pm Tuesday
* Port Everglades: 7:44 pm Monday, 8:06 am Tuesday, 8:31 pm Tuesday
* Virginia Key: 8:30 pm Monday, 8:53 am Tuesday, 9:18 pm Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  77  90 /  40  50  40  70
West Kendall     76  90  75  91 /  40  60  30  70
Opa-Locka        78  90  77  91 /  40  60  40  70
Homestead        77  90  76  89 /  40  60  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  77  88 /  40  60  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  90  77  90 /  40  60  40  60
Pembroke Pines   78  92  77  92 /  40  60  40  70
West Palm Beach  78  91  76  91 /  40  50  40  60
Boca Raton       78  91  77  91 /  40  50  40  60
Naples           79  90  77  91 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...RAG