Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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104 FXUS62 KMFL 151703 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary today over the Lake Okeechobee region. This will keep a south/southwest steering flow over South Florida today allowing for the west coast sea breeze to push eastward across the region with the east coast sea breeze remaining over the east coast metro areas. This in turn will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the focus over the eastern half of South Florida this afternoon into early even hours. The current forecast show this weather pattern and no changes are plan for the POPS across South Florida today. There could be a couple of strong storms this afternoon over the east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide. Primary impacts will be lightning strike, gusty winds up to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Forecast highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s over most of South Florida with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This will allow for the heat indices be in the 105 to 110 range over most of South Florida, except for Glades and Hendry Counties where it will be 100 to 105. Therefore, the Heat Advisory will remain in effect today for most areas except for Glades and Hendry Counties. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A Rex Block (high over low) synoptic pattern will set up over the eastern US for the short-term period, with the closed low beginning to pivot southward today into Monday which should erode the ridge that has been in place over the SE Gulf the last several days. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop along the stalled Atlantic frontal boundary today, with this low then lifting northward into the vicinity of the Carolinas by Monday (with some chance of it obtaining tropical characteristics over the Gulf Stream). We will remain positioned south of this boundary and associated low, with generally weak W-SW flow prevailing over SFL. The flow is weak enough that it should allow for limited inland progression of the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Some drier mid-lvl air will be drawn southward into the area today, bringing PWATs closer to climo (around 2 inches) and this combined with the continued warm temperatures aloft should make convection a bit more anemic/less widespread than previous days. The highest rain chances should still be over Interior and SEFL with a general eastward progression of convection with time. The mid-lvl low will pivot southeastward towards the area on Monday with some low amplitude shortwave energy also approaching the area and mid-lvl temperatures cooling a couple of degrees. Rain chances will be highest over southern portions of the area due to both the W-NW mean low-level flow, and the generally higher PWATs over the southern half of the area. PoPs should be near climo with storms remaining fairly "garden variety" in terms of threats, i.e. gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Peak heat indices may drop a couple degrees today relative to Friday/Saturday but will still likely run in the 105-111 degree range over the area, and a heat advisory is in effect for all of SFL apart from Glades/Hendry counties. Conditions look more marginal on Monday with peak heat indices right around the 105 degree mark. Highs should remain just above seasonal normals, i.e. generally in the low 90s with lows largely in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The stagnant/blocking pattern will remain in place over the eastern US through the week with SFL generally lying along the southern periphery of the eastern US trough. The surface gradient will remain light favoring sea-breeze driven winds through much of the week. PWATs will largely remain in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range (near to just above climo) through mid-week although similar to Monday there could be some spatial variation within our area depending on the positioning/orientation of the tropical moisture plume. This setup will generally favor near to slightly above normal rain chances through most of the period (largely 40 to 60% range), with the main question marks being the timing of any shortwaves which pivot into the area,and where the max PWATs align. Temperatures and heat indices will be near to just above normal through the period (highs in the upper 80s to low 90s). The center of the closed low/trough may shift southward closer to the area late next week into next weekend which would result in cooler temperatures aloft, drier air, and perhaps even some cooling at the surface, but as is typical with blocking patterns and cut-off lows, confidence in this evolution is low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Light westerly flow continues through the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms potentially impacting sites through around 00Z. Very light and variable flow overnight will potentially become easterly-southeasterly at east coast sites if sea breeze is able to push far enough inland although there is some uncertainty with this solution. Patchy fog is possible for APF during the morning hours although not enough confidence to include in TAF yet. Additional convection may impact sites during the morning hours and continue through the afternoon tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through early next week as a frontal boundary and associated low pressure remain north of the area. Seas over the Gulf waters will generally be 2 feet or less with seas increasing today into Monday over the Atlantic waters as northerly swell generated by low pressure off the SE Coast moves in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Lingering northerly swell will result in a moderate risk of rip currents along Palm Beaches today. The rip risk will likely increase early next week over the Atlantic beaches as higher amplitude northerly swell moves in. From today through the middle of the week, there will be the potential for minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full moon. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 92 78 89 / 20 50 30 50 West Kendall 76 92 76 91 / 20 50 30 50 Opa-Locka 78 92 78 91 / 20 50 30 50 Homestead 78 91 78 89 / 20 50 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 90 78 89 / 20 50 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 78 90 / 20 50 40 50 Pembroke Pines 78 94 78 92 / 20 50 30 50 West Palm Beach 78 92 78 90 / 20 40 30 50 Boca Raton 78 93 78 91 / 20 50 40 50 Naples 79 90 78 90 / 10 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Rizzuto