156
FXUS62 KMFL 191852
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Ridging remains in place over the southeastern US, with a generally
easterly flow across South Florida today. Sounding date from the 12Z
MFL launch and ACARS flights show increasing moisture at the lower
levels this morning, topped by a deep layer of dry air aloft. This
influx of moisture near the surface has capitalized on frictional
convergence near the East Coast and the passage of a subtle upper
level disturbance resulting in the development of isolated showers
across the region early this morning. Activity will continue through
the afternoon, with coverage becoming more scattered as the
dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea breeze further
inland. As such, kept 40-50% PoPs progressing from the interior
towards the Gulf coast this afternoon.

A similar weather pattern continues on Thursday but with enhanced
moisture advection as a surface trough approaches from the western
Atlantic. This could result in slightly higher POPs and more
widespread coverage across the area.

Temperatures across the East Coast today will benefit from the
breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s.
Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the
day, with highs in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The synoptic pattern at the start of the extended period will be
characterized by mid-lvl ridging centered over the southeastern
CONUS and troughing over the western US. This pattern will
essentially reverse itself Sunday into early next week, as the
ridge retrogrades into the SW US and longwave troughing amplifies
over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure near Bermuda
will remain the main feature of interest Friday through the
weekend (although a weak tropical wave will pass to our north on
Friday with little impacts expected) maintaining moderate E-SE
low-lvl flow over SFL. Towards the end of the extended period, the
aforementioned high will shift eastward resulting in sea- breeze
driven circulations prevailing by early next week.

In terms of sensible weather, shower/storm evolution will largely
follow those of a typical easterly regime Friday-Sunday with the
best rain chances initially over the Atlantic waters/east coast in
the morning and early afternoon, with the risk of showers and
storms then increasing on the west coast later in the afternoon
as the Gulf breeze moves inland. Overall rain chances look to be
in the high-end Chc to low-end likely (i.e. 45-60%) range through
this period as near to just above climo deep-layer moisture
(PWATs 1.9-2.1 inches) will partially offset synoptic subsidence
from the ridge. As the large-scale easterly flow weakens early
next week, the diurnal evolution of daily storms may shift to
become more Interior-focused but confidence remains low.
Temperatures will likely run just above average through the period
(highs mostly in the low to mid 90s), with daily heat indices
peaking around 103-107 degrees (with the highest values west and
Interior)


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the period as gusty easterly flow
prevails. Stray SHRA/TSRA could result in brief periods of MVFR
conditions along East Coast terminals in the early afternoon; did
not include TEMPOs in this forecast cycle due to low confidence
of timing and duration. SHRA/TSRA moves inland after 20Z with the
potential for sub-VFR conditions shifting westward towards KAPF.
Chances for rain diminish overnight, but VCSH could be possible
again tomorrow, starting early along the East Coast and then
progressing westward towards KAPF in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Breezy and gusty easterly wind flow across the local waters today
along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5
feet over the Gulf. A slight decrease in the E-SE winds will lead to
lower seas for the end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous
through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Robust easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across
all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  89  79  90 /  30  50  20  50
West Kendall     77  90  77  91 /  30  50  20  50
Opa-Locka        78  90  79  91 /  30  50  20  50
Homestead        78  88  79  90 /  30  50  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  87  79  88 /  30  50  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  87  79  89 /  30  50  20  50
Pembroke Pines   79  91  79  92 /  30  50  10  50
West Palm Beach  77  87  76  90 /  30  50  10  50
Boca Raton       78  88  78  90 /  30  50  20  50
Naples           76  93  76  93 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...ATV