260
FXUS62 KMFL 271603
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1203 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Mesoanalysis early this afternoon depicts much of the same, South
Florida remains nestled within a relatively quiet synoptic regime,
with a longwave trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico and quasi-
zonal flow predominantly encompassing the southern peninsula. This
will maintain a southwesterly to westerly flow regime through much
of the low to mid troposphere, which will maintain a fairly
persistent and predictable convective regime with activity once
again favoring the east coast metro areas over the next several
hours. Showers and thunderstorms will initially spawn across inland
locales, gradually propagating eastward/northeastward into an
unstable airmass characterized by higher values of theta-e.
Localized low- level convergence along a pinned Atlantic sea breeze
will facilitate enough ascent for showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the breeze directly overhead of the east coast
metropolitan area and traverse off the boundary offshore. Given the
relatively light 500mb flow out of a southwesterly direction and
southeasterly surface flow on the stable side of the Atlantic sea-
breeze, storm activity may remain pinned along the boundary. This
could allow for heavy rainfall to persist over urban locations for
just enough of a duration to result in localized urban flooding.

Much of the same continues on Friday, Showers and thunderstorms are
likely to impact much of the region once again, with localized
flooding and perhaps an isolated strong storm or two possible. With
lighter synoptic flow, sea-breeze circulations should be able to
propagate further inland which will act to favor inland areas more-
so than metro areas along the immediate coastline. Overall, not much
of a departure from a typical wet season day across South Florida -
rinse and repeat! Maximum temperature will be seasonable and typical
for this time of year, with high temperature values ranging from
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures will span the low
to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

As we approach the weekend, the synoptic pattern will undergo
notable changes with the development of upper-level ridging over
the deep South. This ridge will cause winds to prevail out of the
south on Saturday, and then from the east-southeast by Sunday
evening.

During this period, mesoscale dynamics will play a crucial role in
convective initiation. Near-normal precipitable water (PWAT)
values will support the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day. The steady easterly surface flow will lead
to a typical convective pattern: isolated showers or thunderstorms
over the East Coast Metro area in the morning, with increasing
coverage and a shift towards the interior and Gulf Coast areas
during the afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding remains
a primary concern due to the weak flow pattern.

In the long term, temperatures are expected to remain near or
slightly above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper
80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching into the triple
digits. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sct SHRA/TSRA will develop across SFL and push eastward towards
the east coast terminals through the remainder of the early to mid
afternoon hours. Bouts of sub-MVFR cigs/vis could be realized if
SHRA/TSRA directly impacts east coast terminals. Light SW flow
will continue across the area with a pinned Atlantic sea-breeze
along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local
waters for most of the week. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will be
generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and
seas each day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  79  91 /  20  50  20  60
West Kendall     76  92  77  91 /  10  50  20  60
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  92 /  20  50  20  60
Homestead        78  91  79  90 /  10  50  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  79  89 /  20  50  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  92  79  91 /  20  50  30  60
Pembroke Pines   79  94  80  93 /  20  50  20  60
West Palm Beach  76  92  78  91 /  30  50  20  60
Boca Raton       77  92  79  91 /  30  50  30  60
Naples           79  92  79  93 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Hadi