689
FXUS62 KMFL 010608
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
208 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A shallow backdoor cold front will move through the Atlantic
waters to the north, reinforcing breezy easterly flow over South
Florida. This will result in cooler temperatures, especially the
eastern metro region. Highs today will range from around the upper
80s to low 90s along the east coast, and low to mid 90s
elsewhere. There could be a few showers along the east coast metro
area forming along low-level convergence zones, but most
convective activity will be over the interior and southwest areas.
A few strong thunderstorms are possible over these interior
locations, owing to enhanced instability and pockets of low-level
convergence along the sea breeze.

By Sunday, the milder northeasterly flow associated with the
backdoor cold front will have dissipated over the Atlantic waters
as gradient flow weakens and shifts easterly. This change will
bring scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along the
east coast in the morning, driven by low-level theta-e pulses. The
easterly flow regime will support greatest convective development
along the interior and southwest Florida by the afternoon hours.
Some locations may experience measurable rainfall, but impacts
should be limited to gusty winds and brief lightning strikes.
Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees cooler along the
east coast, with highs in the mid to upper 80s along the east
coast and low to mid 90s over the interior and Gulf Coast. Heat
index values will not exceed high temperatures by much, as
dewpoints remain at or below 70 degreesF.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Early Next Week: As the gradient flow weakens within the boundary
layer and the front becomes less pronounced and diffuses over the
Atlantic waters to the north, a persistent fetch of east to
southeasterly winds will prevail through early next week. Subtle
pulses of low-level convergence, combined with theta-e maxima,
could spawn bursts of convection along the east coast in the
morning. However, most convection should be relegated to the
interior and southwest portions of the region. High temperatures
each day will mainly be in the lower to mid 90s across most areas,
except for the mid to upper 80s in the east coast metro areas.
The far western east coast metro areas could see highs around 90
degrees. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s for most
areas, except for lower to mid 90s in the east coast metro areas
and around 100 in metro Collier County. Low temperatures will be
in the lower to mid 70s across most areas each night, with the
east coast metro areas experiencing lows in the upper 70s to near
80 degrees.

Middle to End of Next Week: Late next week, the ridge over the
Western Atlantic waters will break down, allowing a trough of low
pressure to build into the Eastern United States from the west.
This will cause the steering flow to shift to a more south to
southwest direction over South Florida. Concurrently, deeper
moisture from the Caribbean Sea may start to move into South
Florida, potentially increasing the probability of precipitation
(POPs) late next week, with the highest coverage expected over the
east coast metro areas where sea breezes collide. High
temperatures will rise in the middle to end of next week, reaching
the mid to upper 90s across most areas, except around 90 degrees
in the west coast metro areas. Heat indices will also increase,
likely reaching the lower to mid 100s across most areas, except
around 100 degrees in the west coast metro areas. Low temperatures
will remain in the 70s across most areas, with the east coast
metro areas around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

E/NE winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts late this morning
through the early evening. VCTS entered at all locations after
18Z. Mainly clear skies early this morning with SCT MVFR ceilings
possible throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

East-northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots will develop this evening
and overnight, creating hazardous boating conditions over the
Atlantic waters, which will persist through most of the weekend.
Seas will build up to 6-7 feet over the Atlantic waters and 2-3
feet over the Gulf waters. Consequently, a Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for the Atlantic waters from this evening through
Sunday morning. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers
and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds
and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Persistent east to northeasterly flow in the presence of a front
to the north will result in a high risk for rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches. This will persist through the weekend and likely
into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Breezy E/NE winds will continue today, with gusts of 20-30 mph
possible from late morning through the early evening. Despite RH
values not falling to critical thresholds, fire weather concerns
will still be present over interior portions of SW FL today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  77  87  77 /  30  40  50  50
West Kendall     89  75  88  74 /  30  40  50  50
Opa-Locka        88  76  88  75 /  30  40  40  50
Homestead        89  77  88  76 /  30  40  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  86  77 /  30  40  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  86  76  86  76 /  30  40  40  50
Pembroke Pines   90  77  89  77 /  30  40  40  50
West Palm Beach  87  75  86  74 /  20  40  40  50
Boca Raton       88  76  86  75 /  30  40  40  50
Naples           94  74  93  75 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CMF