016
FXUS62 KMFL 232343
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
743 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A quick stroll outside this evening reveals much of the same as
dry air remains in place across the region. Perhaps, a welcome
respite ahead of a more active pattern coming up during the middle
portion of this week. The ACARS soundings from local airports
would tend to agree with that assessment as a considerable dry
layer exists from 925mb up through the vertical scope of the
atmosphere. While convection has been sparse today, the potential
certainly exists for some overnight shower activity along the east
coast of South Florida as the instability of the warm Gulfstream
waters may support the development of showers gradually moving
westward via a light easterly breeze. Temperatures will remain in
the upper 70s across the majority of the region overnight with the
exception of low 80s along the immediate coast and some cooler
values in the mid 70s near Lake Okeechobee.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Mid-level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is keeping a
relatively drier air mass over much of Florida today but it will
begin to break down on Tuesday with the return of moisture
increasing ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine`s departure
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through the Yucatan Channel.
The drier air mass and high aloft will again help keep convective
coverage lower than climatology while also limiting the potential
for stronger thunderstorms.

The flip side of less cloud cover and convection is that
temperatures will again be a little warmer with many areas
reaching the lower 90s and some portions of Southwest Florida
reaching the mid 90s. Heat index values will range from 100 to 105
across much of the peninsula with portions of Southwest Florida
reaching up to 109 on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the middle to latter portion of the week, all eyes turn to
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it moves up from the Carribean
Sea and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, deep
tropical moisture will push into the region which will gradually
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
through Friday. While the exact details still remain uncertain,
confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall and
some flooding concerns during this time frame. The latest WPC
excessive rainfall outlooks put us in a marginal risk (Level 1 out
of 4) on Wednesday, and a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for the
west coast on Thursday. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned,
uncertainty still remains high and will depend on the exact track
of the system. If the storm were to track further to the east,
this would increase the rainfall totals across the region,
however, a track further to the west would decrease these totals.
In general, rainfall amounts from Wednesday through Friday evening
look to range from 2 to 5 inches across the region with locally
higher amounts. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses. With the increased cloud cover through the middle to
the end of the week, high temperatures could be held down and
remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest guidance suite is
hinting at mid level ridging building over the area on Saturday
and Sunday. At the surface, southwesterly wind flow will help to
keep deep layer moisture advection in place as the moisture tail
from what is left of PTC 9 could remain parked over the region.
With an abundance of moisture across the region, this could keep
the enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms in place during
this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of the
forecast as well as it will be dependent on exactly where this
moisture tail sets up. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses. With southwesterly wind flow in place, high
temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s across
Southwest Florida to the lower 90s across the east coast metro
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Light easterly flow will persist during the overnight hours with
VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Easterly flow will
become breezy tomorrow with isolated SHRA/TSRA developing once
again across inland areas. Spatial coverage and confidence is too
low to include VCTS/VCSH for any terminal at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Strengthening easterly wind early this week as the pressure
gradient across the region tightens. Showers and thunderstorms
will be much less active as drier air continues over the region.
Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any
thunderstorm that forms. Eyes will turn to potential tropical
development in the northwestern Caribbean mid to late this week
which may lead to deteriorating conditions across the local
waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as
northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor
coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low-
lying coastal areas. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip
currents continues for the Palm Beaches. However, beginning
Tuesday, a high risk of rip currents is likely for the South
Florida Atlantic Coast beaches.

High Tide Tides...
* Virginia Key - 2:09 PM Mon, 2:18 AM Tues, 3:07 PM Tue
* South Port Everglades - 1:28 PM Mon, 1:39 AM Tue, 2:33 PM Tue
* Lake Worth Pier - 1:14 PM Mon, 1:24 AM Tue, 2:19 PM Tue
* Naples Bay, North - 7:21 PM Mon, 5:10 AM Tue
* Flamingo Visitors Center - 9:02 PM Mon, 8:08 AM Tue, 10:38 PM
  Tue

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  80  88 /  20  30  50  80
West Kendall     77  91  78  89 /  20  30  60  90
Opa-Locka        79  91  80  89 /  20  30  50  80
Homestead        79  90  79  88 /  20  40  60  90
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  79  88 /  20  30  50  80
N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  79  89 /  30  30  50  80
Pembroke Pines   79  92  80  91 /  20  30  50  80
West Palm Beach  79  89  79  89 /  30  30  30  70
Boca Raton       79  90  79  90 /  30  30  40  80
Naples           77  94  78  89 /  30  30  30  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Hadi