Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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603 FXUS62 KMFL 272338 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 738 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Mesoanalysis early this afternoon depicts much of the same, South Florida remains nestled within a relatively quiet synoptic regime, with a longwave trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico and quasi- zonal flow predominantly encompassing the southern peninsula. This will maintain a southwesterly to westerly flow regime through much of the low to mid troposphere, which will maintain a fairly persistent and predictable convective regime with activity once again favoring the east coast metro areas over the next several hours. Showers and thunderstorms will initially spawn across inland locales, gradually propagating eastward/northeastward into an unstable airmass characterized by higher values of theta-e. Localized low- level convergence along a pinned Atlantic sea breeze will facilitate enough ascent for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the breeze directly overhead of the east coast metropolitan area and traverse off the boundary offshore. Given the relatively light 500mb flow out of a southwesterly direction and southeasterly surface flow on the stable side of the Atlantic sea- breeze, storm activity may remain pinned along the boundary. This could allow for heavy rainfall to persist over urban locations for just enough of a duration to result in localized urban flooding. Much of the same continues on Friday, Showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact much of the region once again, with localized flooding and perhaps an isolated strong storm or two possible. With lighter synoptic flow, sea-breeze circulations should be able to propagate further inland which will act to favor inland areas more- so than metro areas along the immediate coastline. Overall, not much of a departure from a typical wet season day across South Florida - rinse and repeat! Maximum temperature will be seasonable and typical for this time of year, with high temperature values ranging from upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures will span the low to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 As we approach the weekend, the synoptic pattern will undergo notable changes with the development of upper-level ridging over the deep South. This ridge will cause winds to prevail out of the south overnight Friday before veering to the east/southeast over the weekend. During this period, mesoscale dynamics will play a crucial role in convective initiation. Near-normal precipitable water (PWAT) values will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The steady easterly surface flow will lead to a typical convective pattern: isolated showers or thunderstorms over the East Coast Metro area in the morning, with increasing coverage and a shift towards the interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding remains a primary concern due to the weak flow pattern. In the long term, temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching into the triple digits. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the AM hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are probable Friday afternoon, so VCTS has been introduced with this cycle. Winds will trend light and variable overnight, and then be largely sea-breeze driven by Friday afternoon (i.e. E-SE east coast, and W-SW at KAPF). && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local waters for most of the week. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will be generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and seas each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 92 79 91 / 20 50 30 50 West Kendall 76 92 77 91 / 20 50 20 60 Opa-Locka 78 93 79 92 / 30 50 30 50 Homestead 78 91 79 90 / 20 40 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 90 80 89 / 30 50 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 80 90 / 30 50 30 50 Pembroke Pines 79 94 81 93 / 30 50 30 50 West Palm Beach 76 92 79 91 / 40 50 30 50 Boca Raton 77 92 79 91 / 30 50 30 50 Naples 79 92 79 93 / 20 40 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Carr