Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
773 FXUS66 KMFR 062200 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 300 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .DISCUSSION...A weak upper trough is moving slowly into SW Oregon which is the triggering mechanism for mainly slight (10-20%) chances over the east side this afternoon and tonight. The exception is along the Warners and in far southeast Lake county where there is a narrow region of 30-50% chances aligned closest to the area of convection currently ongoing and developing from parts of Washoe and Harney Counties. Storms are not expected to be of great impact. After tonight we move into Friday with concerns of very warm high temperatures and another round of slight chance (15-20%) thunderstorms over the east. The NBM has been fairly consistent with advertising temperatures 3 to 7 degrees warmer than today west of the Cascades, well into the 90s for the western valleys and near 90 over the east. These are departing from normals by +15 to +20 degrees, so a fairly unusual warm spring day. Near-record or record highs will be monitored at Klamath Falls (91/1996), Alturas (93/1996) and Mount Shasta City (92/2015). Current records are shown. The heat risk with this period only reaches 2 in the warmest locales as overnight low temperatures will be fairly cool and relieving generally in the 50s. Friday`s storms should be slightly more numerous and extending further west into the Cascades versus today with a more significant trough approaching. The deep upper low digs into the PacNW by Saturday cooling temperatures by 3-8 degrees. Stavish && .AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across northern California and southern Oregon today, with gusty winds expected along the Oregon coast and over Roseburg this afternoon. Winds will calm quickly tonight. There are hints of lower ceilings and visibilities developing over North Bend late tonight or early in the morning, but confidence in this is very low. OTherwise, VFR will continue through the remainder of the TAF period. -BPN/TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Thursday, June 6, 2024...A thermal trough will continue to produce gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas across the area coastal waters, with very steep and hazardous seas south of Cape Blanco. Winds will peak late this afternoon and evening, with gale winds possible south of Gold Beach before winds start to decrease overnight and into Friday morning. Even as winds decrease, very steep seas will continue south of Cape Blanco into late Friday morning. Steep seas will remain in all waters into late Friday night. Please see MWWMFR to see more detailed areas of expected hazards as well as timing for current Small Craft Advisories and Hazardous Seas Warnings. Seas will be calm through Saturday, although westerly swell will start to increase during the day and a thermal trough will return late Saturday night. Steep seas are expected to return to all waters Sunday and continue into early next week as the thermal trough strengthens. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$