Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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596 FXUS66 KMFR 101138 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 438 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Updated AVIATION Section .DISCUSSION...After an active weekend with daily thunderstorms, a stable air mass will be in place for the much of the work week leading to dry conditions. Upper level ridging returns over the region today and a thermal trough redevelops along the coast. Marine stratus has returned to the coast north of Cape Blanco and south of Gold Beach this morning and also fills the Coquille Basin. Satellite imagery shows some scattered clouds developing in the Umpqua Basin as well, but skies are clear across the rest of the forecast area. These clouds will give way to sun by late morning and inland temperatures will trend warmer today by a few degrees, reaching about 10 degrees above normal. Subtle changes are likely through the week, but overall conditions will remain the same with the nightly return of low clouds along the coast and seasonable afternoon breezes. A subtle pattern change will come Tuesday into Wednesday when an upper level trough passes into the Canadian Provinces. This will flatten the ridge and bring zonal flow to the region, resulting in a slight cooling trend west of the Cascades. Afternoon breezes will be enhanced by this subtle pattern change, but precipitation will remain well to the north of the forecast area. A larger pattern change is expected Friday into next weekend as low pressure moves into the region from the northwest. There remains varying details regarding precipitation chances, timing in when the trough moves inland and how long it sticks around, as well as how far south the trough progresses. Due to this, there is uncertainty in the details but overall higher confidence in below normal temperatures and gusty winds over the weekend. Precipitation chances at this time are greatest for areas along the coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide where about 40% of the ensemble solutions bring some precipitation to these areas, and the other 60% of solutions maintain dry conditions. Stay tuned as details become more clear over the coming days. /BR-y && .AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs...LIFR ceilings/visibilities and also patchy drizzle are occurring from Pistol River southward along the Curry coast this morning. It is VFR from Gold Beach to Port Orford, but MVFR ceilings (around 1500 feet) are impacting much of the coast north of Cape Blanco, as well as interior Coos County and portions of the Umpqua Basin to the north and west of Roseburg, including the Camas Valley. It is currently VFR at Roseburg, but there is about a 50/50 shot at MVFR ceilings from 13-16Z this morning. The clouds and lower conditions should break up and become VFR by late this morning/early this afternoon in most places. VFR prevails elsewhere today. Gusty north winds (up to 25 kt) will develop at North Bend this afternoon. Marine stratus with MVFR/IFR will likely return to the same general areas along the coast this evening or overnight, but probably not as far inland as this morning, while VFR prevails everywhere else. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Monday, June 10, 2024...A moderate west swell will subside over the waters this morning. However, a persistent thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep seas south of Cape Blanco today through tonight. Winds and seas subside briefly early Tuesday, but north winds increase again Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as another moderate west swell arrives. Conditions become hazardous to small craft over all waters with the potential for gales and very steep, hazardous seas south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas remain elevated through Thursday, but should lower some late in the week. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. && $$ MNF/MAS