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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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162 FXUS66 KMFR 141046 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 346 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .DISCUSSION...Two records for maximum temperatures were set yesterday. At Mt. Shasta the old record of 88 degrees was beaten when the temperature peaked at 90 degrees. At Montague, the previous record of 94 degrees was tied. Following some record warm temperatures, stratus has once again built into coastal valleys of SW Oregon and is trying to spread up the Umpqua river valley, too. Meanwhile, currently, stratus has returned in some coastal valleys and is developing in some parts of western Douglas County. The stratus is expected to lift and dissipate by this afternoon. As a broad trough takes hold over the region the main impact over the next few days will be in introducing cooler temperatures. The most notable of which are temperatures near or below freezing returning to the mountains and areas east of the Cascades. Frost is also expected with these conditions. The cold overnight temperatures are expected to peak Saturday and Sunday nights, with Monday forecast to be the coolest day in this period. Otherwise, we are expecting humidities to trend up and for the afternoon diurnal winds to be enhanced a bit, but none of this is expected to cause any impacts. Slightly more active weather is possible early on Saturday as a decaying front brings a 10-30% chance for less than 0.1" of an inch of rain to the coast and Douglas County. Models are continuing to point towards later Sunday and Monday as being a period of being more likely to have more frequent rain shower chances. There is a broad 10-15% chance across NorCal and SW Oregon Sunday evening, with the chance for precipitation peaking around 50% in the Cascades at the same time. Amounts are forecast to generally be less than 0.1", except in the Cascades and eastern Douglas County where amounts are forecast to be around 0.25". Although both road and many rocky surfaces are likely too warm to support holding new snow cover, there is snow in the forecast for the higher peaks in the Cascades, with a 20% chance that up to 1" falls. So, overall light amounts of both rain and snow, which should have minimal impact beyond maybe causing some slick roads. Thunderstorm activity still doesn`t look all that likely, too, but is possible north towards the Willamette Valley and central Cascades. High pressure is expected to return through the end of next week, but is generally characterized by warm, rather than hot, temperatures, and regular diurnal wind cycles. -Miles && .AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...MVFR ceilings are affecting the coast north of Cape Blanco, including North Bend, this evening. Expect MVFR to prevail there tonight, though ceilings could go back and forth from MVFR to VFR (SCT) at times. Local IFR is possible closer to sunrise and some IFR/LIFR could also develop along the south coast near Brookings. The lower conditions should go back to VFR by late morning. Inland, expect VFR to prevail the next 24 hours, though there will be a fair amount of high cirrus Friday compared to today. Winds won`t be as gusty in Roseburg or North Bend on Friday (compared to Thursday). However, gusty (mostly NNW) breezes will develop Friday afternoon at Medford and Klamath Falls with peak gusts of 20-25 kt and 25-30 kt, respectively. Low ceilings probably return to coastal areas Friday evening and some lower ceilings could bank up against north and west-facing terrain then as well. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM Friday, June 14, 2024...North winds and steep seas will linger this, highest south of Cape Blanco. Conditions gradually improve from north to south with advisory level seas continuing after 7 AM south of Gold Beach. A cold front passes through the area on Friday night bringing relatively calm seas. A thermal trough over northern California may produce advisory strength north winds near shore south of Gold Beach Saturday afternoon and evening. By Sunday, there is a lot of uncertainty with model guidance, and there is the potential for a strong low to pass later Sunday into Monday. This could bring in a strong fresh swell in addition to stronger wind speeds than we currently have forecast. We essentially have a scenario where either an upper level low takes a northern track or a southern track through the region. As the track becomes clearer, we should have a much better idea of potential hazards (or lack thereof) early next week. -DW/Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. && $$