Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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797 FXUS66 KMFR 170441 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 941 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid TAF cycle. With the upper system departing, we are expecting clouds to slowly decrease in coverage through this cycle with increasing sunshine throughout the day tomorrow. Also, expecting slightly breezy afternoon wind speeds tomorrow. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ DISCUSSION...An upper low off the PacNW coast will continue to move east/southeast across the area...bringing below normal temperatures...lots of clouds...and some rain. A band of rain extending from Curry county east into central and northern Klamath county is moving slowly southeast. We even experienced a few drops stepping outside of the office in Medford during the last hour. Expect any precipitation activity to slowly subside into Monday morning. The best chance for rain into tomorrow morning will be in Lake county and lingering over the Cascades. Otherwise...after the next 12 to 16 hours...dry weather is in store for next 7 days. Temperatures today and tomorrow will generally be around 10 degrees below normal...before high pressure takes hold of the area early next week into at least the end of the work week. By Tuesday...temperatures will be near normal...rapidly warming to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by the middle to end of the work week next week. There is little disagreement in the clusters/ensembles through next weekend in the fact that we will be dry and warm. There are some differences in the extended clusters as far as the positioning of an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska toward the end of next weekend...with about a 30% to 40% chance of cooler temperatures late next weekend into the following week. According to the Climate Prediction Center`s 8 to 14 day outlook...Valid June 24th through June 30th...there is about a 30 to 50% chance of below normal temperatures. It seems as though summer is having a hard time establishing its grip on the area...and I`m OK with that! -Riley AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Showers are expected to subside through the next several hours as the upper level low continues to move east. This eastward advancement will allow for subsidence aloft and clouds to clear out overnight with VFR conditions across the region. While some pockets of clouds may be possible (including some mountain obstructions), confidence is much higher for VFR conditions across the terminals through this period. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, June 16, 2024...A weak cold front is moving through the waters this afternoon, and north winds will strengthen through the evening and overnight as the front moves inland and high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds and seas will build to small craft advisory levels south of Cape Blanco this evening and remain hazardous through at least Wednesday evening. As a result, the small craft advisory for the southern waters has been extended through that time. This north wind pattern remains in place from Wednesday night onward, but the tendency is for winds and seas to decrease a little. Confidence in this happening is not high, so it would not be surprising if we ended up extending the small craft advisory further in time. Will wait for confidence to increase before making that decision. -Wright && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT Monday for ORZ029>031. CA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT Monday for CAZ084-085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. && $$