861
FXUS66 KMFR 271122 AAA
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
420 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion.

.AVIATION 27/12Z TAFS...Marine moisture is sustaining low ceilings
along the Oregon coast, with MVFR ceilings and local IFR. Local
visibility reductions are possible in drizzle. Low clouds
will clear later this morning with conditions becoming VFR along the
coast. Inland, mid level clouds and local MVFR ceilings are present
from the Cascades west this morning. These ceilings will clear in
the late morning becoming VFR. East of the Cascades and across
northern California, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Inland high temperatures look to only be a few to
several degrees below normal today. But, it looks to be quite some
time before they are again as cool as they will be today, at
least through the next 10 days while the ECMWF extended ensemble
mean suggests it may be beyond July. Also of note, a cold frontal
passage yesterday afternoon brought wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph to
the east side. Late day winds during the next week look to be
closer to their breezy normal.

Besides the cooling, yesterday`s cold front and a surface trough
passage early this morning brought up to a few hundredths of an
inch of light showers to the coast and Coast Range mountains, with
an intrusion of low clouds across western Oregon to the Cascades.

Weak ridging will begin to build into the coast around sunrise,
and put an end to the risk of light showers shortly thereafter
with a slow erosion of the stratus. The low clouds are expected to
clear at the coast by noon, and will be faster to erode farther
inland, generally by 10 or 11 AM PDT.

The pattern of westerly flow aloft looks to produce a stable air
mass over our area during the next week, with near or very slightly
above normal temperatures from tomorrow/Friday into early next
week. The slow passage of another weaker trough is expected to
bring high clouds across the area Friday night into early
Saturday, and also increase the coverage and duration of coastal
low clouds Saturday night through Monday night, especially north
of Cape Blanco.


There is a likelihood of further warming from Tuesday through the
long holiday weekend (Day 6 through 10), and a little more than
50% of ECMWF ensemble members indicate strong warming by Thursday.
Meantime, the mean and majority solution of GEFS members is not
quite as bullish. So, the most likely scenarios are hot or very
hot. The warmer scenario for late in the week would also include
both an episode of northeast low level winds with downslope
warming for Brookings, and then up to a few days of stronger
westerly winds on the east side.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Thursday, June 27, 2024...Relatively light
winds and seas are expected through early this afternoon. A return
of gusty northerly winds is expected late this afternoon into
Friday, with steep seas affecting areas south of Cape Blanco. Winds
and seas will peak late Friday afternoon and evening, with steep
seas continuing south of Cape Blanco and an area of very steep
hazardous seas possible between 5 and 20 nm from shore south of
Brookings. Winds and seas lower Saturday and Sunday. Then gusty
northerly winds and elevated seas are expected early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER.../Issued 230 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ Winds have
decreased overnight, with an intrustion of stratus into southwest
Oregon. Later Thursday through Friday should see a short
warming/drying trend before another weak trough passage and marine
push by mid to late weekend. This event shouldn`t cool the
temperatures too much. Thereafter, next week looks to be a fairly
high confidence warming and drying event. Some red ERC numbers are
showing up toward Thursday and Friday in the GACC`s 10-day
projected table indicating values reaching or exceeding the 95th
percentile. Stavish

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this
     afternoon to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$