122
FXUS62 KMHX 152232
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
632 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Back door cold front will continue to push offshore tonight.
High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week
resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Sat...Backdoor cold front will continue to push off
the coast tonight. Daytime heating has built up CAPEs to
1-1.5kJ/kg along the southern coast, with areas further north
and west struggling to destabilize due to upper level subsidence
and NE flow in the wake of the cold front. Soundings and
mesoanalysis also show PWATs of 1.5" along the Crystal coast
largely focused in the lower levels. This gives us a convergence
of forcing, instability, and moisture along the Crystal coast,
where there will be a focus for isolated showers and
thunderstorms through early evening. One shower currently over
Stella and Swansboro. Shear is relatively weak, with 0-6km shear
values at 20 kt, but impressive DCAPEs of over 1k J/kg
indicated short lived showers and thunderstorms that collapse as
quickly as they initiate. One or two strong storms are
possible, though with main forcing surface based and not much
upper support, no severe storms are expected.

Drier air will grad filter in overnight and expect pleasant
temps with clearing skies and light winds, allowing lows to
drop back to the 60-65 range inland, to upper 60s to near 70 for
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...Extended period of strong ridging
begins Sunday, keeping us dry, warm, and clear. Highs near 90
inland, low-mid 80s for beaches, but Tds in the 50s and low 60s
will result in more pleasant apparent temperatures. Easterly
flow as the high builds to our north will help push the sea
breeze further inland in the afternoon and evening, but a dry
atmospheric column will inhibit any shower formation along the
sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Points:
- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Sunday night - Tuesday...Strong ridging will build over the
eastern US through mid-week, which will bring several days of
warm, dry weather for ENC. Although temps will still be plenty
warm each day (low 90s coastal plain, mid 80s OBX), onshore
easterly flow will work in our favor to keep us from even hotter
temps.

Wednesday - Friday...There are still notable differences in the long
range models, but the consensus is that an upper level low will
develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Gulf of
Mexico. In addition, surface troughing will develop across ENC on
Wednesday and stick around through the end of the work week. PoPs
remain below mentionable until Thursday, however, given the lack of
moisture in the column. Confidence in precipitation for coastal
communities is not high enough to go greater than slight chance at
this time.

This extended period of warm, dry weather will also present
increased fire weather concerns through the week with afternoon
minimum RHs dipping to the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 630 PM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Few to sct scu will dissipate with loss of heating this
evening, giving way to mostly clear to few high clouds overnight
into Sunday. An isolated shower possible through 00z, mainly at
EWN or OAJ. Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds tonight
as high pressure builds in. Widespread fog formation does not
appear likely with drier air filtering in, but very patchy fog
will be possible with possibly best chances at PGV.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...Latest obs show NE-E winds 10-20 kt with
seas 2-4 ft. Backdoor front will continue to push offshore
tonight with NE-E surge grad diminishing to 10-15kt. A few
gusts to 25 kt possible with the N`rly the next few hours,
though not long enough duration to warrant any SCA headlines.
Seas build to 3-4 ft this afternoon with the N`rly winds, with
some 5 ft sets possible outer central waters later afternoon
into evening. Tonight winds decrease to 10-15kts, veering
throughout the night and becoming ENE`rly for Sunday as the high
pressure builds to our north.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...Sub-SCA through the period with high
pressure in control. Monday-Tuesday: E 5-10 kt and seas 2-4 ft.
Wednesday: E 10-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft (4-5 ft offshore).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CQD/OJC/RJ
MARINE...CQD/OJC/RJ