599
FXUS62 KMHX 171353
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
953 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through Thursday resulting in dry and
warm conditions. Coastal troughing may bring some showers to
the region late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM Mon...Sprawling upper ridge remains entrenched
over much of the eastern CONUS this morning with broad high
pressure, centered off the mid-Atlantic and New England coast,
expanding across much of the southeastern states. Prior forecast
is tracking well, and the stage is set for another warm, sunny
day with highs around 90 across the coastal plain and low to mid
80s across the OBX. Dew points will be just a couple degrees
higher today (low to mid 60s) and winds will be around 10 kt or
less out of the southeast. Overall, today will feel very similar
to Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Monday...Winds will be light out of the southeast
and will back to the east by sunrise tomorrow. Lows will be warm
in the mid 60s across the coastal plain and low 70s at the
beaches and along the OBX. Although there will be few clouds and
winds may decouple in some areas, widespread fog does not seem
probable given the lack of moisture in the column.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Pleasant but dry weather through mid week,
then heat and humidity build at the end of the week through the
weekend. Small chances for showers and perhaps a few storms
Friday into the weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday...Strong ridging will build over the
eastern US through mid- week, which will bring cont rain- free
weather. The core of the ridging will remain north of ENC
initially, and thus keeping the intense heat to the north across
the Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For ENC, easterly
flow is expected, which will keep conditions tempered, and in
fact quite pleasant. Highs expected in the mid-upr 80s interior,
to low 80s OBX. In addition, TD`s will be very tolerable, and
remain in the 60s. This will bring cool nights to the region,
with lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast, to low 70s
beaches and OBX zones.

Friday through the Weekend...There are still notable
differences in the long range models, but the consensus is that
weak low pres will develop east of the Bahamas and move west
towards the Southeast Coast (FL/GA). Center of upr ridge will
slide eastward a bit with a weakness allowing for some weak mid
level troughing, and allowing for more of a serly to srly flow
to develop and bring inc heat and humidity starting late this
work week into the weekend. PoPs remain low, though by Fri into
the weekend, some chance of a return to typical afternoon/early
evening sea breeze convection. Pops remain at only 20-30%, as
no strong forcing feature is noted on med range ensembles. Temps
will be on the rise, into the 90s Fri into the weekend. TD`s
will rise steadily as well, and a potential for heat indices
into the upr 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 6:50 AM Monday...Pred VFR with strong ridging continuing to
build in. Few to scattered high clouds are possible through the
period with scattered diurnal cu this afternoon. Once again, a
lack of moisture should limit overnight fog development.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...VFR conditions expected through the period
with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 2 AM Monday...Warm and dry with sub-SCA conditions through the
period. Winds will be ESE around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt and 2-4
ft seas.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Sub- SCA through the period with high pressure
anchored to the north of ENC. Light to moderate erly flow of
10-15 kt, ocnl gusts to 20 kt expected. Seas will generally be
2-4 ft through mid week. Low pres will develop east of the
Bahamas this week and approach the SE Coast (FL/GA) by mid week.
Some higher swell may approach and seas possibly exceeding 6 ft
Wed night into Thu for the ctrl/srn waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 3 AM Mon...A dry airmass will be in place through mid week,
with minimum RH in the 30s and 40s percent, especially away
from the coast. This will overlap with breezy E winds at times,
and is noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX