828
FXUS62 KMHX 140757
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
357 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure moves northeast well off the Carolina
Coast. High pressure dominates through the weekend into next
week. A dry cold front will push across the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 4 AM Fri...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward
along the Gulf Stream and well offshore today. A few light rain
showers are still possible along the OBX, but have lowered pops
a decent amt as looks like the bulk of rain is remaining well
offshore. Low level thickness values and NE flow support highs
in the 80s for the beaches and climbing into the low 90s inland.
Nerly flow keeps temps around 80 for much of the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Fri...In wake of departing offshore low, a cold front
will be dragged down through ENC overnight tonight. This front
will be moisture-starved, and with timing of front coming
through late tonight, instability will be non existent, so
outside of a few sprinkles, the area will be dry, and have not
introduced any pops attm. Lows near to slightly above climo, in
the upper 60s interior to low 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM Friday...

Key Points:

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Saturday afternoon guidance is keying in on isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for Onslow, Jones, Craven,
and Carteret Counties along the sea breeze. Handled this with a
15-20% PoP (Schc) between 18Z Saturday and and 00Z Sunday.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting
back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night
allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this
boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up,
but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm
formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm
weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This
prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but
fortunately winds should remain light during this period with
the high. 0Z model guidance does suggest the potential of a weak
coastal trof that may approach our area by mid to late week. Too
far out to do more than chance pops at this time, which also
match climo for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2 AM Fri...VFR conditions with light winds expected
through the TAF period. Winds will be nerly today, then switch
to onshore, or serly tonight, though remaining below 5 kt. A dry
cool front moves in later tonight bringing winds around to nwrly
after midnight and esp towards daybreak Sat.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 4 AM Fri...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward
along the Gulf Stream today and well off the NC coast. Nerly
winds of 10-20 kt expected today with seas 3-5 ft (highest
south of Hatteras). Could be a couple hours of 6 ft seas between
Hatteras and Ocracoke this afternoon, but duration of the
possible higher seas does not warrant SCA issuance attm. A few
showers and possibly a tstorm possible over the Gulf Stream
waters through this morning.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Cold front moves through early Saturday,
pushing the low away to the NE Saturday. A secondary back door
cold front moving through will then move through later Saturday.
This sequence of events will result in rapid wind changes, and
brief periods of gusty conditions right along and behind the
fronts. Next week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves
2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure
dominates

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RM/EMH
AVIATION...RM/TL/EMH
MARINE...RM/TL/EMH