542
FXUS62 KMHX 141842
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
242 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure moves northeast well off the Carolina
Coast today. A cold front then pushes through Saturday morning. High
pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

 - Quiet weather expected through tonight

Low pressure will continue to pull away from the coast this
afternoon, with the risk of showers ending along the Outer Banks
(mainly the Cape Hatteras area). In the wake of the low, the
low- level flow will quickly become southerly ahead of a cold
front approaching the area from the NW. Despite the dry boundary
layer this afternoon (some areas of ENC have seen dewpoints
drop into the 50s), I expect temps to end up milder than last
night due to the moistening southerly flow. Additionally, a
modest increase in mid- level moisture should support partly to
mostly cloudy skies, which should also help to keep temps from
falling as low as last night. With the increasing moisture, some
guidance is hinting at the potential for a few overnight
showers. I`m not seeing much in the way of forcing, and moisture
return looks modest, so for now I opted to continue with a dry
forecast through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

 - Early day cold front passage

 - Isolated thunderstorms possible along the Crystal Coast
   Saturday afternoon (10-20% chance)

A mid-level shortwave will shift offshore during the day
Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing south through
ENC. Short-term guidance has remained fairly consistent with the
timing of the front, pushing it off the Crystal Coast by mid-
morning. Despite the northerly flow behind the front, it appears
that the more notable boundary layer drying will be delayed by
a few hours. Heating of the residually-moist boundary layer may
support several hours of modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1500
j/kg). Forcing will be waning, but perhaps enough forcing can
develop along the seabreeze to support a few thunderstorms
popping up around Onslow, Jones, Craven, and Carteret Counties
before the drier air arrives. Given the lack of appreciable
forcing, the risk of deep, sustained convection appears low, as
does the risk of severe weather. It still appears to warrant
some low-end pops, though, so no real change to the forecast
there. Low-level thicknesses don`t change much behind the front,
and I expect temperatures Saturday to be fairly close to what
we`re seeing this afternoon (80s along the coast, 90s inland).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM Friday...

Key Points:

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Behind the cold front, ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick
hitting back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday
evening/night allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s.
Unsure how this boundary will interact with the sea breeze if
the timing lines up, but the additional forcing would be more
conducive to storm formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry,
warm weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This
prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but
fortunately winds should remain light during this period with
the high. 0Z model guidance does suggest the potential of a weak
coastal trof that may approach our area by mid to late week.
Too far out to do more than chance pops at this time, which also
match climo for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

 - VFR conditions expected through Saturday morning

A cold front is forecast to move through Eastern NC Saturday
morning. Ahead of the front, the winds will flip from NE/E to
S/SW through tonight. This will allow weak moisture return to
occur, along with a period of SCT/BKN mid-level clouds. The risk
of SHRA appears low through tonight (<10% chance). A few SHRA
or TSRA may develop on Saturday, but the greatest chance looks
to be focused just beyond the current TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

 - Elevated winds and seas continue into Saturday

 - Low end thunderstorm risk near the Crystal Coast Saturday

Based on satellite imagery and buoy obs, a 1010mb surface low
is located about 140 miles southeast of Cape Lookout at this
time. Despite the nearby proximity of the low, buoy obs show
seas are mostly in the 2-4 ft range across the coastal waters,
and winds are in the 10-20kt range. Based on these observations,
and given that the low is pulling away from the area, we still
do not expect to see widespread, or long-lasting, SCA conditions
today, and we`ll continue with no headlines.

In the wake of the low, winds will quickly flip around to a
southerly direction ahead of a cold front that will be
approaching the waters from the NW late tonight. A period of
10-15kt southwesterly winds is expected ahead of the front,
followed by a period of 10-20kt northeasterly winds behind the
front as it moves through during the day Saturday. Both ahead
of, and behind, the front, seas of 2-4 ft are expected. Over the
far outer edges of the central waters (ie. 15-20nm from shore),
a brief period of seas of 4- 5 ft will be possible through this
evening, especially with the northeast wind opposing the Gulf
Stream. At this time, no headlines are planned through Saturday.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Next week pleasant boating conditions
return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as
high pressure dominates

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH/RM
MARINE...EH/RM