662
FXUS62 KMHX 221513
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1113 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area
dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system
moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return
to unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1100 AM Wednesday...

- Warming trend begins today

Morning fog has mixed out across the area, and all fog
headlines have been allowed to expire. In the wake of the fog,
temps are warming faster than forecast, so I`ve increased highs
for this afternoon. Despite higher temps today, it still looks
like we`ll remain capped along the seabreeze, and I`ll continue
with a dry forecast through the afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Surface high pressure shifts further
offshore today, with lee-troughing developing east of the
Appalachians. This will lead to a modest increase in southerly
flow across the coastal Carolinas. The increased southerly flow
plus warming thicknesses beneath ridging aloft will support high
topping out 5-10 degrees higher than yesterday (ie. mid to
upper 80s inland). While instability will steadily build, it
appears there will be enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep
the risk of afternoon convection very low. The one exception is
along the central OBX where a coastal trough approaching from
the east may support a few showers near, or just offshore by the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday... Sfc high is offshore to our east
tonight, with ridging continuing to build over us at higher
levels from the SW. Quiet night in store, with lows in the low
to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s for beaches. Some patchy fog
is possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning along
hwy 17, but confidence and impacts remain low enough to prevent
an inclusion in this forecast update.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the mid-Atlantic will
start moving east on Thursday due to an incoming surface trough.
Unsettled weather will continue through the period with a
series of shortwaves forecast to move across the area. This will
bring multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...High pressure across the mid-Atlantic will keep
things mostly dry on Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead of
an approaching surface trough, causing an increase in cloud
cover and PoPs during the evening and overnight hours. It will
be quite toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain
and around 80 at the beaches.

Friday - Tuesday...High pressure will move offshore and make way
for an active pattern that will last through the rest of the
period. With high pressure offshore and broad troughing across
the eastern US, southwesterly flow will have ENC within a warm
and humid airmass. Multiple shortwaves passing over the area
will create chance showers (25-45%) and thunderstorms each day.
Ensemble guidance shows multiple chances over the coming days
for sufficient CAPE and shear, which could generate some strong
to severe storms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 730 AM Wednesday...Solid LIFR/VLIFR conditions along and
east of hwy 17 (KEWN and KOAJ) will be improving over the next
hour, with all terminals reaching VFR by 13Z. Another day of
fair- weather diurnal CU out ahead of the seabreeze which will
turn light and var winds more Serly in the afternoon and
evening. Another round of patchy fog is possible Wednesday
night, but much less impactful than the fog experienced this
morning and not worthy of a TAF mention at this time.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected through
most of Thursday. The weather will become more unsettled on
Friday and continue through the weekend with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms possible. Periods of sub-VFR
visibilities and ceilings are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 1100 AM Wednesday...

- Good boating conditions this afternoon

Visibilities have quickly improved, and the risk of dense fog
has ended for all waters. In light of this, the Marine Dense Fog
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Light winds will allow seas to continue
to lay down, with good boating conditions for most waters during
the daylight hours today. Another chance of fog tonight, but
impacts are expected to be much lower than this morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...SW winds around 10 kt will increase to
10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later Thursday. This wind
regime, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers
and thunderstorms, will stick around through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...RM/OJC/RJ