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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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855 FXUS62 KMHX 251405 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1005 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored to the north through midweek as a warm front approaches eastern North Carolina from the west and stalls. TC Helene will pass through the interior Southeast US and bring a period of mostly minor impacts to ENC on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1005 AM Wed...The upper ridge off the east coast will continue moving further offshore today. A positively tiled upper trough across the Mississippi River Valley will deepen and cut off. At the surface, a warm front remains hung up roughly along the Highway 70 corridor. Weak isentropic lift over the front continues to drive weak shower activity across far northeastern NC, while additional shower activity is grazing the Crystal Coast as a weak trough develops offshore. No changes in forecast thinking this morning. Only scattered activity warrants no higher than chance PoPs today. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be more than enough instability to fuel a few thunderstorms. A strong storm or two is possible this afternoon, but think continued influence of the upper ridge just offshore will prevent more robust activity from developing. If a stronger storm does arise, organized multicells with gusty winds and heavy rainfall rates are possible. PWATs around 1.5-2"+ and 25-30 kt of deep layer shear support this risk. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Wed...PoPs quickly drop off after sunset but cloud cover will stick around overnight, which will support mild low temps around 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 4 AM Wed... Thursday...Onshore serly flow will bring cont moistening of the bndry layer, and there will be iso to sct showers as weak WAA occurs. Have a 20-30% chc of rain in the fcst for these showers. QPF amts will be light, generally less than a tenth of an inch. Shower chances should diminish during the evening, but by sunrise, approaching heavier showers from the west emanating from the outer bands of TC Helene may begin impinging on the swrn coastal plain counties. Warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s Thu only cool to the mid 70s on Thu night. Friday/Friday Night...The main item of interest will be the impacts from TC Helene, which the center of the storm will be moving through GA and then into the TN Valley. With the large size of the system, some outer rain bands will be propagating through ENC during the day. 25/00z deterministic and ensemble guidance in good agreement with the track of the system. Strong moisture advection east of the center should allow a plume of tropical moisture to quickly overspread the coastal Carolinas throughout the day from w to e. At the same time, a broadly diffluent flow aloft plus increasing WAA should support a period of strong forcing, leading to a quick period of moderate to heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, some of which may become severe and contain a few tornadoes. MLCAPE vals inc to aoa 1,500 J/KG with plume of mid/upr 70s TD`s overspreading the region. Strong backing of sfc winds to the SE will produce enhanced low lvl helicity, and a favorable environment for a tornado or two will develop. While quick- hitting, guidance has been showing a consistent signal for a brief period of heavy rain and localized flooding, though the good news is the band or bands of heavy rain will be progressing eastward fairly quickly, with rain ending as early as mid afternoon for many areas save for the OBX, and all areas by day`s end. Attm, 0.75" to 1.00" are forecast, with locally higher amounts in heavier cells. Breezy conditions will be present as well, with sserly breezes gusting to 20-25 mph inland, with 25-30 mph close to the coast. Quick drying with all rain ending and winds diminishing rapidly and becoming swrly Fri evening, with temps still muggy in the low 70s. Saturday...Mainly dry with subsidence in place behind the system, and upr low pres well west of ENC. Warm and humid continues with swrly flow, and highs in the mid 80s. Sunday through Tuesday...Aforementioned upr low migrates slowly eastward, with chances for showers each day, with perhaps a surface low developing near or over ENC. Have capped pops at 30% attm due to uncertainty on synoptic and mesoscale features this period. Temps will cont to near or slightly above climo, with highs in the low/mid 80s to 60s for lows. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through today/... As of 7 AM Wednesday...A stationary boundary draped roughly along Highway 70 will continue to support isolated showers this morning but will become more widespread later today. There is enough moisture, instability, and deep shear for some strong to severe storms with gusty winds and heavy rain. Activity will decrease after sunset and flight cats should remain predominantly VFR until early tomorrow morning when the next round of fog and low stratus will be present. LONG TERM /Thu through Sun/... As of 4 AM Wed...A few iso to sct showers will dot the region on Thu with onshore serly light winds. On Friday, a tropical system is forecast to pass well west of eastern NC, but still be close enough to produce a period of gusty winds, RA, TSRA, and sub- VFR conditions. Sub- VFR end by late Fri afternoon into evening as dry air moves in behind the system. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Current obs show 5-6 ft seas at 11-12 seconds north of Ocracoke Inlet and 3-5 ft at 11-12 seconds to the south. SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters from Duck to Ocracoke Inlet with little change expected during the period. The waters south of Ocracoke Inlet will slowly build to 6 ft by Thursday morning, at which time a SCA will be in effect for those waters. Light (< 10 kt) southeasterly winds will increase to 10-15 kt south of Cape Hatteras today. LONG TERM /Thu through Sun/... As of 4 AM Wed...Building seas occur on Thu ahead of TC Helene well south and west of ENC, and have added the remaining ctrl and srn waters into the SCA suite, with seas building to 6+ ft Thu morning. On Fri, gradient inc to 20-25 kt sustained and gusts to 30 kt for the coastal waters, esp ctrl and srn waters, and seas build to 7-10 ft with the sserly winds. Attm it appears winds will remain below gale/trop storm force, though the large wind field will cont the high seas into Fri evening. Winds quickly diminish and turn swrly Fri night and cont into Sat with seas subsiding to below SCA by Sat afternoon. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Wed...The coastal flood threat continues for all of coastal North Carolina through today as tide levels remain elevated. This includes the added Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers, where waters in Belhaven have only recently receded. Water levels at high tide today will be slightly lower than yesterday, but could still result in up to a foot of inundation above ground level. Along and north of Ocracoke, persistent northeasterly swell from a distant low offshore will continue to bring minor overwash concerns with maximum inundation around 1-2 feet. Looking ahead, we`ll continue to closely monitor the track of TC Helene as distant coastal impacts could be felt across a portion of ENC on Fri into Fri evening thanks to southerly onshore winds and large waves. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/OJC MARINE...TL/OJC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX