155
FXUS62 KMHX 282326
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
726 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this evening. The next front
passes late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 730 PM Tue...Stronger cluster of storms continues just
south of the Albemarle Sound early this evening. Iso svr risk
continues for the next hour or so, with convection grad
dissipating thereafter. A cold front is forecast to move
offshore just after sunset this evening, with a decreasing risk
of thunderstorms after that time. CAA behind the front isn`t
forecast to be overly strong, but it will feel cooler thanks to
lowering dewpoints. Some guidance is hinting at the potential
for fog development behind the front, perhaps especially where
thunderstorms form today. This seems plausible given a lack of
stronger post- frontal winds. At this time, though, coverage of
fog is too patchy and areal placement of rainfall uncertain, so
will leave fog out of fcst attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tue...Light offshore (NW) flow is expected behind
the fropa, though synoptic flow is quite weak, and by afternoon
local sea/sound/river breezes will dominate. With lack of any
forcing and drier air intrusion with TD`s in the 50s to low 60s,
no precip expected. Highs will be in the mid 80s area wide,
except for the OBX and immediate beaches, which will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Mostly quiet long term with dry reinforcing
front clearing Wednesday allowing cool high pressure to build
in late week.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves
passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on
Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the
front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC
high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Forecast
remains dry through this period save for Thurs night into Friday
when a shortwave aloft sharpens the upper trough that has been
relatively broad over ECONUS. Temps cool end of the week as the
high pressure begins spilling over the area behind a reinforcing
front pushing the inland troughing offshore. MaxTs in upper
70s, MinTs in the 50s.

Weekend...Upper trough will be offshore as ridging builds over
the area through the entire column with SFC high almost directly
overhead Saturday morning pushing offshore the latter half the
weekend.

Early Next Week...Get back to warm and moist Serly flow regime
with the high pressure now offshore and a developing shortwave
approaching from the W leading to increase in cloudiness and
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 730 PM Tue...Some isolated to sct thunderstorms expected
across coastal counties of ENC through this evening, best
chances at EWN. Where TSRA occur, sub- VFR VIS can be expected,
in addition to 40kt+ wind gusts and hail. In the wake of the
TSRA, patchy low CIGs or BR/FG may develop, especially where it
rains. Due to coverage of rain uncertainty, will not put fg in
fcst attm. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...A drying trend is setting up for the
remainder of the workweek with Thursday night being the
exception.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 730 PM Tue...Shra and a couple storms will affect the
waters, sounds, and rivers into early evening. Any iso storms
will end after around 8-9 pm and quiet weather with light winds
expected tonight. For Wed afternoon, local sea/sound/river
breezes will dominate due to weak general winds, but will be
light, less than 10 kt. Seas will be 3 ft or less through Wed.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...SFC trough/reinforcing front approaches
and moves through Wed night, turning winds Nerly for the
remainder of the work week. Seas generally falling through the
week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...CQD/TL/CEB