681
FXUS62 KMHX 261041
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
641 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure restrengthens offshore today, with another cold
front crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then
builds in behind this feature from the north late week and into
the weekend with another front approaching late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 640 AM Wed...Key message for today: It will be hot and
humid with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s inland.

High pressure will extend from the Atlantic into the Carolinas
today producing a southerly flow of hot and humid air across the
area. Subsidence is again expected to preclude convective
development today though an isolated late day sea breeze
thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out. The FV3 and HREF
CAM`s were the most aggressive in developing diurnal convection
while most other models were devoid of precipitation. Thus will
continue to keep mention out of the forecast but will monitor
trends in observations and models with inclusion possible in
subsequent forecast updates contingent on trends the near term.

The big story today will be the heat and humidity. Southerly
flow and strong heating will produce highs in the mid to upper
90s inland. Currently dewpoints are in the 70s but convective
mixing during peak heating is expected to mix dewpoints down into
the upper 60s resulting in max Heat Index values of 100-104
degrees which is just below Advisory Criteria. Thus will hold
off issuing a Heat Advisory. Nonetheless, it still will be hot
and humid and people should take precautions today when outdoors
to protect against the heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM Wed...Moisture will begin streaming into eastern
NC late tonight ahead of an approaching weak cold front. This
will result in a very low chance for a shower or thunderstorm
from the northern Outer Banks to the northern coastal plain
after midnight. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and warm
temps. Could see areas of low stratus clouds late. Low level
mixing should be sufficient to preclude fog as the gradient
increases ahead of the approaching front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Heat and humidity continue through this
weekend with high pressure ridging into the area. Heat related
impacts will be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with
the most oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front will bring likely chances for rain and
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Then more scattered
diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday, with better
chances arriving late Sunday and into Monday as another front
moves in.

Thursday and Friday...Another cold front will move into the
region on Thursday, with a good coverage of showers and
thunderstorms expected (60-70% chance) from the afternoon into
the evening hours. With these storms there will be a risk of
some isolated severe weather, mainly in the form of damaging
wind gusts and large hail due to favorable instability
parameters (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPEs), and at least modest deep
layer shear (~20 kts). There remains some uncertainty related to
the strength of wind shear in the area, and a greater severe
risk may materialize if shear is stronger.

Precip chances will continue Thursday night as the front crosses
the area and moves offshore Friday morning. Behind this front a
marginally cooler/drier airmass will try to build in but will
not be very successful, and humid conditions will persist
Friday. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will be
possible Friday afternoon with the highest chances over the
coastal plain.

Another threat for Thursday will be oppressive heat and
humidity, especially across the southern half of the forecast
area where temps will reach the mid 90s with very high humidity
levels (dewpoints mid to upper 70s), which will create heat
indices 105-110 for a few hours in the afternoon before storms
move through. Farther north highs will be limited by clouds and
precip from the approaching front, with highs mainly in the
upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching 100 to
105. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday behind the
front, but with humidity sticking around, heat indices will
again top 100 degrees and could be as high as 105 degrees.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heat and humidity will increase again
this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. There will
be the potential for excessive heat Saturday and Sunday as high
temps soar into the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along
the coast, which will lead to heat indices reaching 105 to 110
degrees both days.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday and
Sunday, with increasing rain chances coming late Sunday and into
Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Behind
this front early next week the heat and humidity looks to break
finally with near normal conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 640 AM Wed...With high pressure in control, we are
looking at mainly a VFR TAF again through tonight. However,
moist low levels and radiational cooling will lead to patchy fog
and areas of low stratus clouds which will result in MVFR to
IFR conditions in the 8-12Z time frames early this morning and
again early Thursday morning, though fog chances tonight will be
minimal due to sufficient low level mixing. Southerly winds
will gust to around 20 kt late this afternoon into this evening
ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Any fog and/or stratus
will rapidly dissipate after 13Z.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...There will be potential for sub-VFR
conditions Thursday afternoon through Thursday night as a cold
front moves through the area and brings scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could have strong
winds and large hail. Convective activity will then become more
scattered and daytime focused Friday and Saturday, with some
periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. Another cold front will
arrive late Sunday and bring an increased chance of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 640 AM Wed...Winds and seas will be increasing later
today and tonight as the gradient increases ahead of a weak cold
front approaching the waters. S winds around 10 kt this morning
will become SW this afternoon and increase to 10-15 kt and
15-20 kt tonight. There will be occasional gusts to 25 kt this
evening. The wave models are in a good agreement that seas will
continue 2-3 ft today and increase to 3-4 ft tonight. With
conditions now expected to remain below advisory criteria will
hold off on issuing a SCA.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Decent boating conditions expected through
the weekend with high pressure over the area aside from
Thursday when a cold front moves through.

Winds will be SW 5-15 kts ahead of the front Thursday morning.
As the front crosses the waters later Thursday winds will likely
become variable as convective outflow boundaries crisscross the
area. Eventually light N/NE will develop Thursday night behind
the front, and then become easterly at 5-10 kts Friday. Winds
will then turn to the SE at 10-15 kts Saturday, and will
increase to SSW 10-20 kts Sunday ahead of another front. Seas
will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SGK/RJ
AVIATION...JME/SGK
MARINE...JME/SGK