430
FXUS62 KMHX 021036
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes offshore today and remains off the coast
through Monday. A backdoor front will moves into the area on
Tuesday and stall through Wednesday morning. High pressure then
rebuilds offshore later Wednesday with moist southerly flow
strengthening through late week ahead of a potent frontal
system, which will result in generally unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 630 AM Sun...No significant changes to the forecast this
morning. High pressure has recently moved offshore and
widespread high cloud cover remains over ENC this morning.

As we go through the day, upper ridging over the area will
gradually slide offshore as a neutrally tilted upper trough
approaches from the west towards sunset. Weak mid level
shortwave will be rounding the base of this trough but will
remain just off to the west by Sun evening. At the surface, high
pressure will remain offshore allowing winds across the FA to
become S-SW`rly today at about 5-10 mph. This will finally begin
moisture return in earnest as PWAT`s climb to around 1 inch by
this afternoon. Some brief enhancement along the seabreeze may
occur this afternoon but in general winds should continue to
remain light through today. Current forecast keeps the area dry
through the day and we likely see some breaks in any high cloud
cover this morning before a mix of diurnal Cu and additional
high cloud cover develop this afternoon. Some of the CAM`s are
showing a few isolated showers across the region this afternoon,
however given dry forecast soundings, a lack of forcing, and
the rest of the global and ensemble guidance showing fairly
widespread dry air still over ENC today, elected to keep PoP`s
below mentionable. Highs get into the mid 80s inland and upper
70s to low 80s along the OBX and immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Low confidence precip forecast begins this
evening as upper level trough moves overhead with associated
shortwave also moving over the area as well late tonight.
Surface high pressure remains centered offshore keeping light
S-SW`rly flow across ENC which will continue to pump moisture
over the forecast area tonight. Given this we will finally have
a seasonably moist atmospheric column over the region as PWAT`s
finally get to about 1-1.5 inches across the CWA. With weak
forcing in place, a few iso showers could develop across the CWA
and have kept in SChc PoP`s over the area as a result. Will
note many of the CAM`s show the area completely dry, but think
there`s enough of a chance to see an iso shower or two across
the region tonight to keep SChc PoP`s in for now. Will note even
if showers do develop any precip amount`s would be very light
generally less than 0.05 inches and as mentioned above, this is
generally a low confidence precip forecast. Lows tonight get
into the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Conditions become more unsettled Monday
as a weak impulse moves overhead. A backdoor cold front moves
into Eastern NC Tuesday morning and stalls through Wednesday
morning, and provides a focus for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. High pressure rebuilds offshore later
Wednesday, and increasing southerly flow will bring a surge of
moisture into the area through late week with more unsettled
conditions likely. A strong cold front looks to move through the
area sometime next weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...Moisture advection continues Monday as
PWATs surge above 1.5", and expect a decent coverage (~40%) of
showers and thunderstorms as a weak upper level impulse moves
overhead a moist and unstable environment.

A backdoor cold front will move into the area Tuesday morning,
but now looks to be weaker, and is expected to stall somewhere
across Eastern NC. This development brings the potential for
the front to focus afternoon shower and thunderstorm
development, and have the highest chances for precip (35-45%)
inland Tuesday afternoon.

Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be warmer than recent days
but still slightly below normal and in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Saturday...The stalled frontal boundary will
break down early Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds off the SE
coast, and this will allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to
advect in from the west Wednesday through Friday ahead of a
potent upper level trough and strong cold front.

Increasingly unsettled conditions (40-55% +) are likely with a
diurnal max in coverage each afternoon. An increase in heat and
humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low
90s each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees out
when factoring the humidity.

Stark timing differences with the front among model guidance,
as well as differences with the eventual evolution of the upper
level trough casts some doubt on rain chances Friday, but most
guidance has drier conditions moving in for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/...
As of 635 AM Sun... No significant changes to the forecast. VFR
conditions with light winds are forecast to prevail across all
terminals through Sunday night while high pressure remains
centered just off the coast today.

High clouds generally above 15-20 kft continue to stream in
from the west this morning and are bringing little in the way
of impacts to operations. We will likely see a brief period
where cloud cover diminishes slightly from its current levels
this morning before increasing southerly return flow aids in
eventual diurnal cu development this afternoon with SCT to BKN
ceilings around 5kft expected between 18Z Sun to about 1-2Z Mon
with 10-15 kft high cirrus also increasing once again in the
afternoon across ENC. Once again minimal impact to operation is
forecast from this cloud cover. As we get into tonight, iso
shower chances gradually begin to increase as a weak mid level
shortwave approaches, though given the rather isolated nature
of any precip that develops will keep terminals precip free
through the period until higher confidence in precip chances
occurs.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Unsettled conditions will be the theme this
week, with best chances for rain and thunderstorms coming
Wednesday and Thursday. This could bring some periods of sub-
VFR conditions to the terminals at times.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday night/...
As of 3 AM Sun... Benign boating conditions persist through the
period as high pressure becomes centered off the Southeast
Coast. Light and occasionally variable winds this morning will
become S-SW`rly and increase slightly to 5-15 kt over the next
several hours. These winds will then persist through the
remainder of the period. 1 to 2 foot seas across our waters will
also change little through the period as well with some
occasional 3 ft seas found along the Gulf Stream waters this
evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Good boating conditions expected through
Wednesday with light winds but some unsettled conditions
possible. Then the pressure gradient will tighten Thursday with
low end Small Craft conditions possible.

Winds will be SSW at 10-15 kts Monday, becoming weaker overnight
into Tuesday morning. A backdoor front will move through a
portion of the waters from the north Tuesday morning before
stalling, with flow out of the NE at 5-10 kts to its north and
SW winds at 5-10 kts to its south. This front will continue to
bifurcate the coastal waters through Wednesday morning until
high pressure rebuilds offshore and winds become SSW at 10-15
kts Wednesday afternoon. Winds then continue to strengthen
Wednesday night, and then climb to SW 20-25 kts Thursday.

Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, and then increase
to 4-6 ft Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF