045
FXUS62 KMHX 301853
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
253 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions persist this afternoon and tonight
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move through
the area tomorrow morning with high pressure building back into
the area from the north on Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity
build back in over the second half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Key Messages:
*Oppressive heat and humidity will continue through this evening
 ahead of a cold front. Heat Advisories remain in effect for all
 of Eastern NC until 8 pm.
*Severe weather threat will soon develop this afternoon and
 continue through much of tonight with damaging wind gusts the
 main threat.
*Extremely heavy downpours and quickly accumulating rainfall
 (3-6 inches locally) could cause isolated flash flooding
 through tonight within thunderstorms.

Temperatures will continue to rise to their highs this
afternoon, widely in the mid to upper 90s inland, and the low
90s along the coast. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s to low
80s across the region, heat indices have climbed to 105 to 110
across much of Eastern NC, and Heat Advisories continue across
the area.

Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms have
blossomed along a pre-frontal trough in central NC and are
spreading eastward this afternoon. So far, meager wind shear has
limited storm organization, but expecting a slight uptick in
deep layer shear later this afternoon/evening which will help
create more robust updrafts. The high instability environment
may also play a role in improving storm organization with
MLCAPEs rising above 3000 J/kg now. Nevertheless, there will be
a threat for wet microbursts and water-loaded downdrafts this
afternoon and evening, and this threat could continue in some
fashion overnight.

Extremely heavy rain will fall from these thunderstorms due to
near record PWATs 2-2.5", and several inches of rain could
accumulate quickly in areas that receive heavy thunderstorms. As
a result there will be an isolated threat for flash flooding
this afternoon through tonight even though it has been quite
dry in the last several weeks.

Tonight, there may be a relative lull in thunderstorm activity
as the daytime prefrontal activity diminishes, but expect
coverage to increase after midnight as convection along the cold
front moves in from the north. Temperatures will remain warm and
muggy ahead of the front, and then drop sharply into the lower
70s behind the front which will likely make it to the southern
Pamlico Sound and US 70 corridor by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...The cold front will be located across southern
NC tomorrow morning, and will eventually push offshore in the
afternoon. Widespread areas of rain and thunderstorms will
persist across the southern half of Eastern NC into the
afternoon, while cooler and drier air begins to move in to
northern NC. There is some uncertainty how quickly the front
will push offshore and if a sea breeze might hold it up along
the coast. Eventually, drier and more stable air will win out
and reach the southern coast which will gradually bring an end
to precip late in the day. Temperatures will be well below
normal thanks to widespread cloud cover most of the day across
the southern coast, and the influx of cooler and drier air
farther north. Have highs in the mid to upper 70s for most
locations except for the norther coastal plain where some
afternoon sun will boost temps into the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sun...

KEY MESSAGES:

Cooler than average temps are forecast on Tue and Wed

Oppressive heat and humidity return Fri through Sun

Monday Night through Wed...Cold front will be well offshore by
Mon evening with high pressure ridging building in from the
north and west overnight. Outside of a few lingering showers
along the Crystal Coast and OBX and a few rumbles of thunder
offshore early Mon evening, the area should remain relatively
dry Mon night with cloud cover clearing from north to south
through the night. Will have a steady but light NE wind through
the evening as well behind the departing front which should
limit any potential fog threat. Cooler temps persist behind this
frontal passage as well with lows Mon night getting down into
the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and upper 60s to near 70 along
the OBX.

Ridging gradually slides E`wards Tue and Wed bringing fair weather
to ENC as well as below avg temps. Highs get into the mid to upper
80s and lows get into the 60s each night. With dewpoints much lower
behind the front as well, it will feel more comfortable outside.

Thurs through Sat...Upper ridging will remain overhead into next
weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the
surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further
offshore allowing return flow to resume across ENC. This will bring
a return to oppressive temps and humidity especially Fri and Sat
which could threaten to bring more heat related impacts to the area
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...VFR conditions currently across the terminals,
with convection blossoming to the west closer to I-95. Expect
shower and tstm chances to increase through the next few hours,
potentially becoming organized and posing an isolated strong to
svr weather threat. Environment favors frequent lightning,
torrential rainfall lowering visibilities to IFR or worse, and
wind gusts in excess of 40 kt. Activity will slowly diminish
later this evening, but another round of frontally-forced
convection will begin to approach the terminals from the north
near or shortly after 6z. This band has higher probabilities of
more predominant MVFR (70-80% chance) and potentially IFR cigs
(30-40%) associated with it. Once again, a torrential rainfall
threat may lower restrictions briefly below IFR. The front will
move through Monday morning, and expect sub- VFR conditions(low
stratus, rain and reduced vsbys) to linger through mid morning
and early afternoon, grad improving from north to south. SW
winds will quickly shift behind the front Mon morning, becoming
NNE gusting to 15-20 kt through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 320 PM Sun...A return to primarily VFR conditions is then
forcast Mon night into the end of the period as high pressure
ridging sets up overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Marginal Small Craft conditions will continue
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front with SW winds
15-20 kts, and frequent gusts to 25 kts. Tonight, winds will
weaken slightly right ahead of the front, and then turn to the
N/NE behind the front early tomorrow morning from north to
south across the coastal waters. N/NE winds will then strengthen
tomorrow morning to 15-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts across
the coastal waters and eastern sounds with Small Craft
conditions again developing. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft, though
could occasionally rise to 6 ft across the central waters
tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Front should push offshore and out to sea by
Mon night with gusty winds quickly diminishing to 10 to 15 kts
and gusts to 20 kts by Tue morning ending SCAs across our
waters. Fair weather and benign boating conditions are then
forecast from Tue to the end of the period. Winds will continue
to ease Tue and Wed as high pressure ridging extends over the
our waters eventually down to 5 to 10 kts while veering to an
easterly direction by Wed. WInds eventually become S`rly at
10-15 kts by Thurs as ridging shifts E.

Lingering 4-6 ft seas likely Monday night. As we get into Tue
and beyond, as the winds ease seas will also lower down to 2 to
4 ft by Tue and remain at these heights into the end of the
period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...SGK/MS/RCF