Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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530 FXUS62 KMHX 141100 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure moves northeast well off the Carolina Coast. High pressure dominates through the weekend into next week. A dry cold front will push across the area early Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 7 AM Fri...No changes needed with AM update. Prev disc...As of 4 AM Fri...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward along the Gulf Stream and well offshore today. A few light rain showers are still possible along the OBX, but have lowered pops a decent amt as looks like the bulk of rain is remaining well offshore. Low level thickness values and NE flow support highs in the 80s for the beaches and climbing into the low 90s inland. Nerly flow keeps temps around 80 for much of the OBX. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 4 AM Fri...In wake of departing offshore low, a cold front will be dragged down through ENC overnight tonight. This front will be moisture-starved, and with timing of front coming through late tonight, instability will be non existent, so outside of a few sprinkles, the area will be dry, and have not introduced any pops attm. Lows near to slightly above climo, in the upper 60s interior to low 70s coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM Friday... Key Points: - Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week Saturday afternoon guidance is keying in on isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Onslow, Jones, Craven, and Carteret Counties along the sea breeze. Handled this with a 15-20% PoP (Schc) between 18Z Saturday and and 00Z Sunday. Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up, but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm formation. Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but fortunately winds should remain light during this period with the high. 0Z model guidance does suggest the potential of a weak coastal trof that may approach our area by mid to late week. Too far out to do more than chance pops at this time, which also match climo for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 7 AM Fri...VFR conditions with light winds expected through the TAF period. Winds will be nerly today, then switch to onshore, or serly tonight, though remaining below 5 kt. A dry cool front moves in later tonight bringing winds around to nwrly towards daybreak Sat. LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the long term. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 4 AM Fri...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward along the Gulf Stream today and well off the NC coast. Nerly winds of 10-20 kt expected today with seas 3-5 ft (highest south of Hatteras). Could be a couple hours of 6 ft seas between Hatteras and Ocracoke this afternoon, but duration of the possible higher seas does not warrant SCA issuance attm. A few showers and possibly a tstorm possible over the Gulf Stream waters through this morning. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Friday...Cold front moves through early Saturday, pushing the low away to the NE Saturday. A secondary back door cold front moving through will then move through later Saturday. This sequence of events will result in rapid wind changes, and brief periods of gusty conditions right along and behind the fronts. Next week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...EH/TL MARINE...EH/TL