898
FXUS62 KMHX 301426
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1026 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shortwave passing through trough aloft leads to chance of
showers and tstorms tonight. Behind this wave, cooler high
pressure builds overhead for the weekend. High pressure then
builds offshore early next week with near normal conditions
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM Thursday...Little changes needed for the morning
update. Northerly winds and a drier airmass is making it feel
very comfortable. Temps in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the
low to mid 50s late this morning and highs expected in the upper
70s/lower 80s inland to mid 70s OBX.

Previous discussion...Front pushed through last night/early
this morning and will continue to slowly push offshore through
the period. Cyclonic flow continues aloft with localized weak
SFC high briefly building into the region today. Nerly flow will
advect drier air into the region with Tds dropping into the low
to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to around 60 along the coast.
The drier air and subsidence aloft should preclude any shower
development in the afternoon but cannot completely rule out an
isolated shower along the sea breeze, which is not expected to
develop until late afternoon as background Nerly flow will be
dominant most of the day. The Canadian continues to be the only
model showing QPF during the day. Have kept highest PoPs over
the sea/sound/river breeze convergence areas for Nerly
background flow, but kept below mentionable. Temps will be very
comfortable for late May with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0400 Thursday...A potent shortwave and an associated
100kt upper jet are forecast to round the base of the upper
trough tonight. Modest low-mid level moistening beneath cool
temps aloft will support a period of weak instability timed out
with the passage of the shortwave and very weak SFC troughing.
This should support the development of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will move from NW to SE along a line
from Martin and Washington Co toward DownEast Carteret after
midnight. Severe weather is not expected with this activity, but
with cooler temps aloft, perhaps some pea size hail could occur
should any of the stronger updrafts reach their full potential.
MinTs in the mid to upper 50s inland, low 60s Inner Banks, mid
60s Sern beaches/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Cool high pressure will build into the area
Friday and into the weekend with below normal temperatures and
low humidity expected. Then, high pressure will slide offshore
early next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring
daily scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Friday through Sunday...A few morning showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Friday as a reinforcing front moves offshore,
but then expect mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
Cooler high pressure will remain centered to the west this
weekend which will lead to below normal temperatures and low
humidity...a welcome sight here in early June. Highs will reach
the upper 70s to low 80s, while low temps dip to near record
lows Friday night (in the upper 40s to low 50s inland), and then
mid to upper 50s Saturday night.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday as weak upper level impulses move
through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to near normal,
with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each day, and lows
mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Friday/...
As of 0700 Thursday...VFR flight cats are expected through the
TAF period as high pressure builds into the area after FROPA.
Showers and tstorms during the overnight hours are possible as
shortwave pushes through the FA. Showers are forecast to move
from NW to SE starting around midnight tonight. Heaviest
showers, and therefore best chance for subVFR should remain just
E of PGV and EWN, but have included a lower secondary cloud
group and VCSH for these TAF sites overnight.



LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong cooling each morning could result in the
formation of patchy fog which could bring periods of sub-VFR
visibilities to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday Night/...
As of 0700 Thursday...Front pushed through and is currently
~70+mi offshore. Decent boating conditions expected through the
short term. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Thursday with
winds 10-15kt while veering to NE to E through the day. Winds
may become gusty this afternoon, approaching 25kt but should
remain below SCA criteria. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft,
highest over outer Central waters where 4ft possible. Shortwave
traveling through the trough aloft passes over the FA after
midnight tonight leading to chance of showers and tstorms
working from NW to SE across the Pam/Pungo Rivers, Wern extent
of PamSound, DownEast Carteret, and then across Cape Lookout
around sunrise Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Good boating conditions expected through
the weekend and into early next week with high pressure
overhead.

Winds will be N/NNE 10-15 kts Friday, and then subside slight to
5-10 kts Saturday. Return flow develops Sunday with winds
becoming SSW at 5-10 kts. Winds then become SW at 10-15 kts
Monday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB