526
FXUS62 KMHX 181723
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
123 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then
shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches
from the west. That low will impact the area through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

KEY POINTS:

- A low threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms will
  remain possible this afternoon and the area remains in a
  marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Highest
  likelihood to see stronger storms will be across areas around
  and south of Hwy 264 this afternoon and evening where greatest
  instability will be. Storms will mainly bring a damaging wind
  threat to the area.

-During the afternoon and evening, a heavy rain and potential
 flash flooding risk sets up along frontal boundary in ENC.
 Where this boundary sets up will determine where the heaviest
 rainfall develops. ENC remains in a marginal risk (level 1 of
 5) for excessive rainfall.

No significant changes as of this update to the forecast.

Prev Disc...Warm front extending from a sfc low to our west
lifts north through the area before setting shop along the hwy
264 corridor this evening. This warm front provides us with the
most effective forcing through the afternoon and evening. Heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms could form up along the warm
front, and train in one location as long as the front is
stationary. This would result in an increased risk of flash
flooding for the hwy 264 corridor, including Greenville. Further
south, we have no shortage of instability setting up in the WAA
regime, but a lack of forcing will help mitigate storm
initiation. Fortunately for us the warm front is displaced from
the area of highest instability, lessening our severe threat for
today despite ample shear. We have been downgraded from a
slight to a marginal risk of severe weather by the SPC, with
severe winds the primary threat. Warm front begins to dip back
south Saturday evening. The timing of this movement will play a
large role in the severe potential for the Crystal Coast. If the
warm front dips down before sunset, while there is still decent
instability, severe potential will be higher. If it dips down
after sunset, severe potential decreases.

Temperatures on Saturday will vary quite a bit from SW to NE.
South of the stalled front, highs should warm into the 70s and
80s, while north of the boundary, highs may struggle to get out
of the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...Warm front continues moving south and
spins off a weak sfc low which will then push offshore Sunday
morning with stronger northerly flow ensuing as the low deepens
offshore. Upper level low trailing behind the sfc low provides
enough forcing for showers to linger through Saturday night.
Heavy rain is still possible through the night along and east of
hwy 17 as low formation provides additional forcing. Lows
Saturday night near 60 inland and for NOBX, mid 60s for the
remainder of the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will impact the
region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the
north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will
approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday...Low pressure will push offshore by early in the day
bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the
upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing
to bring the threat for rain showers across ENC on a brisk nerly
breeze. Even if no rain, ovc skies and breezy conditions will
prevent temps from rising much, and remaining only in the 60s
through the day. Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in
the 50s.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with
steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s,
then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back
above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise
into the 60s by mid week.

Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a
shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s
end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a
warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this
far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...A fairly complicated forest is on tap
today as we have several moving parts to the aviation forecast.
Currently have a mix of VFR to IFR conditions across ENC with
MVFR ceilings noted at the ISO/PGV TAF sites and VFR at EWN/OAJ.
Lowest ceilings can be found along the NOBX where E to NE flow
has kept low stratus in place. As we get into this afternoon and
evening a wave of low pressure will develop along a N`ward
moving warm front eventually pushing offshore tonight. As this
occurs shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon before waning late
tonight as the low and its associated fronts move offshore. As a
result expect VFR ceilings/vis to become MVFR/IFR at times
within any heavier shower or storm. Have also added in tempo
groups for potential tstm activity across all terminals starting
around 20Z across our northern most TAF sites and ending around
03Z at our southern most TAF sites. AFterwards we may see a
brief period of VFR/MVFR ceilings across ENC early this evening
before NE flow brings low stratus across all of ENC resulting in
widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings at all terminals. These IFR/LIFR
ceilings likely then persist through much of the morning with
clouds maybe lifting towards SUn afternoon to MVFR at times.
Otherwise expect winds to become NE`rly tonight from N to S with
winds gusting closer to 15-20 kts late Sun morning.


LONG TERM /Sun afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Warm front lifts north through the
day, with winds becoming E or SE for all waters. Wind speeds
will be in the 5-15kt range. Along the boundary, widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, the strongest
of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. The
boundary then stalls, with breezy southwesterly winds of 10-15kt
developing south of it, and 10- 20kt easterly winds to the
north. A low will move along the boundary, then shift offshore
Saturday night. Increasing northeasterly winds are then expected
behind the departing low. Winds will be approaching 25kt late
Saturday night, increasing to 25-30kt Sunday morning for
northern waters and sounds as the low deepens offshore.

For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through
Saturday. Seas will then begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday
night into Sunday morning within the strengthening
northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off of
the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in it`s
wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds,
including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30
kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and
the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas
elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6
ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 AM Sat...A warm front will stall west to east along hwy
264 (including Greenville) for a time later today into the
evening, with the potential for convection to train along the
boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall
amounts as high as 3- 6". This may occur over a relatively small
area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round
of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher
risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we`ll be closely
monitoring this potential.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX