Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
075 FXUS63 KMKX 141520 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1020 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonal summer-like temperatures continue into next week with daily highs running 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Not out of the question to see highs approach or even exceed 90F Sunday-Tuesday. - Isolated to widely scattered showers and even a low end potential for thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday (10-25%). && .UPDATE... Issued 1021 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Apart from some minor adjustments to the near-term temp and dew point grids, the overnight forecast remains on track. Similar to prior afternoon periods, efficient daytime heating is anticipated across the region today. Anticipate highs in the mid-upper 80s over south-central and southwestern Wisconsin, with cooler readings closer to Lake Michigan. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 130 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Today through Sunday: Lower pressure remains off to the west and higher pressure remains overhead, though based further northeast. The remnants of Francine have largely fallen apart over the mid-Mississippi Valley as the high to the north and strong ridging aloft remains in place. While we wont see precipitation from Francine we will see increased upper level cloud cover as well as increased moisture in the region. Dewpoints will sneak into the 60s for much of the CWA today with highs remaining in the low to mid 80s. However later today we will see some shortwave energy aloft sliding through western parts of Wisconsin. With the increased moisture from Francine this could allow for some showers and perhaps even some weak storms (10-25%), though things have shifted a bit further west in most recent models. The primary concern for this potential will be the lack of widespread forcing and how connected that forcing will be with the mid level moisture in addition to the relative lack of moisture in the lower levels. Recent models have also come down on this potential lingering into tonight and Sunday, though we cannot rule out a brief shower. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 130 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Sunday night through Thursday: Sunday night through the remainder of the extended period looks dry and overall quiet with initially the upper ridge over the eastern US remaining strong with Monday seeing the the high to the east strengthen and push shower potential back west. We will be watching a mid week tropical system from the Atlantic pushing into the mid-Atlantic region. Although no model suggest any impact directly this may play a role in breaking down the ridge to the east to some degree for the sake of the forecast going forward beyond this week. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 1021 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all terminals. BKN mid-upper clouds will persist, with some thickening possible later this afternoon and evening. Similar to prior days, a lake breeze is forecast to mix inland this afternoon, resulting in an east-northeast wind shift at the lakeshore fields. Have accounted for the aforementioned lake breeze at MKE and ENW. Whether or not the feature will reach SBM remains uncertain, with trends being monitored through the remainder of this afternoon. Like this morning, patchy ground fog will be possible at SBM and UES early Sunday morning. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 130 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure has slid further east into eastern Quebec and will continue to slide a bit further south into NE US through today while the remnants of Francine have all but dissipated in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Winds across the lake will largely be from the southeast through most of the weekend. Winds will then turn predominantly southerly across the open waters later Sunday through the beginning of next week as low pressure develops over the northern Great Plains. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee