Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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611 FXUS63 KMKX 250839 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 339 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of widespread showers and storms on Sunday with at least a small potential for severe thunderstorms. - Cannot rule out a strong to severe storms Sunday but is very conditional right now - Chance for showers/storms Monday/Tuesday but quieter weather midweek && .SHORT TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Today through Sunday: Today will be on the quiet side as higher pressure develops tonight and tracks into the southern Great Lakes region behind the exiting system. In addition Saturday will feature a brief period of weak ridging. This will largely be responsible for keeping the region dry today through tonight. However into Sunday morning we will see increasing chances (80-90%) for showers and storms as a strong shortwave sweeps through the area. This system will also be heavily influenced by 40-60kt LLJ sliding through the CWA during the day. The severe potential Sunday afternoon exists primarily due to the LLJ and the strong 0-3km helicity and deep layer shear associated with it. While some storms could be expected into the early afternoon the environment may be heavily influenced based on how far north the warm front. While models have seemingly slowed a bit from yesterday the highly conditional nature of severe storms remains as the warm appears unlikely to stretch far enough north with any severe potential being limited to the far southern portions of the CWA (near the WI/IL border), and likely elevated. However much of the day will likely (80-90%) be fairly wet for much of the CWA as the low pushes through the region. Around and inch of rain could be expected from this system Sunday/Sunday night. Also expect breezy southeast winds Sunday with mixing enough to grab some of those breezier winds aloft. It should be mentioned that Sunday may feature waves approaching 4 feet, which would cause some Beach Hazards concerns but due to uncertainty we are holding off for now. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Sunday night through Friday: The deepening surface low will gradually push northwest into the northern Great Lakes region and into Ontario. Monday may feature some additional precip chances (30-40%) due to some additional shortwave activity in the region along with some moisture. Originally the low pushing off may have had some impact of precip chance Sunday night into early Monday but that has since backed off with most of the chances related to the next shortwave in the afternoon. Best chances for precip are focused further west. This will be somewhat diurnal as there should be some storms Monday given some weak instability associated with the shortwave. Stronger storms not expected at this time due to lack of shear. Tuesday will also feature continued chances (30-40%) for showers and storms, though weak, due largely to the upper trough digging through the region. While there remains some uncertainty with this upper trough and its progression from central Canada into the western Great Lakes region the trend points toward better chances for a day similar to Monday with diurnal convective influence but with less certainty in regards to location of where we should see shower/storms and how widespread it will be. By midweek it appears for at least a short period we will finally return to drier conditions with higher pressure sliding in ahead of ridging aloft. Friday looks a bit more uncertain but most models suggest a drier solution with any precip concerns holding off until Saturday. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Following the system tonight expect largely clear skies throughout the day with a lake breeze circulation likely developing this afternoon bringing an easterly component to the winds. Otherwise light and variable winds during the day today. Sunday looks largely wet with showers and storms expected to push in during the morning hours. While severe storms look unlikely (10%), stronger storms are possible (20%), primarily further south. Some MVFR/IFR CIGS and VSBYS will be likely (70%) for at least a period Sunday. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Low pressure will continue to slowly lift through far southeast Manitoba/southwest Ontario today. Winds will shift more westerly behind the front this morning. High pressure will then move across Lake Michigan this afternoon and evening, bringing light southerly winds, before another low pressure area approaches from the west and moves across either central or northern Lake Michigan Sunday night. Expect southeasterly winds to increase as this low approaches. Waves Sunday will possibly be enough for borderline small craft conditions. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the lake Sunday and Sunday night. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee