Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
021 FXUS63 KMKX 150823 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 323 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth continues through this week. Daytime highs will range between five and fifteen degrees above normal. - Dry conditions prevail through this week, with the next chance for showers and storms not arriving until next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 323 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Today through Monday: Patchy ground fog may occur into this morning across the usual low areas, before dissipating by middle morning. Otherwise, some middle to high clouds should continue to push northeast through the area this morning, before becoming more scattered this afternoon. The upper level high remains to the east of the region into early this week, with a trough digging across the western parts of the country. At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain well to the east, with dry east southeasterly flow and continued warm temperatures. Highs in the middle to upper 80s are expected today, which is well above normal values in the middle 70s. Similar temperatures are expected on Monday, as the high remains well east. Lowered dew points today and especially on Monday, closer to CONSMOS values, as there should be steep low level lapse rates allowing for some low level mixing and continued drying. This should bring minimum relative humidity values into the 30 to 40 percent range today, and 25 to 35 percent range on Monday. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 323 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Monday night through Saturday: Ensembles suggest that the remnants of the tropical system should remain to the southeast into the middle portions of the week, as a ridge axis shifts east into the region. The surface high should remain to the northeast of the region during this time, which should keep dry conditions and warm temperatures going. Ensembles suggest that the warmth should linger right into next weekend, before a trough tries to shift eastward into the Plains and Upper Midwest. This may bring the next chances for showers and storms, as some ensemble members are starting to show. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 323 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Middle to high clouds should move north northeast through the area this morning and perhaps into the afternoon, becoming more scattered. High pressure well to the east of the region will keep dry conditions going into this week. Light south to southeast winds are expected at terminals today into Monday, and generally into the middle of the week. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 323 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Winds will be mainly south to southeast through next week, as high pressure around 30.2 inches remains well to the east of the region. Low pressure around 29.3 inches will develop over eastern Montana by the middle of the week, reinforcing the south to southeast winds across the lake. Brief bouts of east to northeasterly winds are possible at times. Dry conditions are generally expected through the period, with rain chances possibly returning by next weekend. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee