Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
822 FXUS63 KMKX 011506 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1006 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues through this afternoon, with an isolated clap of thunder possible over southeastern Wisconsin. - Daily rain chances Monday through at least Wednesday, and potential through the entire workweek. - Trending cooler by next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 950 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast remains largely on track as of mid-morning. An upper disturbance is pushing into the region from the Plains, with an attendant area of rain showers beginning to increase in coverage across southern Wisconsin. Activity has been largely non-convective in nature given poor lapse rates through the depth of the column & subsequent negligible instability. Given minimal surface heating, expect instability to remain low through this afternoon, keeping overall thunderstorm potential low. Can`t rule out an isolated clap of thunder over far southeastern Wisconsin, where several CAM solutions depict a weak plume of MUCAPE working in during the late afternoon hours. Rain will push out this evening, with fog development still appearing likely tonight. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Today through Sunday: Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected across the region today, with the highest chances occuring over southeastern Wisconsin. Shortwave energy over Missouri will move northeastward toward the region today, with a corresponding increase in lift and moisture. At the same time, a weak frontal zone will migrate southeastward, aiding in shower production. Showers will initially be light given a considerable amount of dry air in place, but will pick up this afternoon as the quality of the airmass improves, especially southeast of a Janesville to Milwaukee line. This is where thunder chances will be greatest (20-30%). Rain will end this evening, though low clouds will likely stick around. Fresh rainfall and a moist airmass will combine with light and variable winds to favor fog formation overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Areas of dense fog will be possible. Sunday looks to be a very pleasant day, with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Sunday night through Friday: Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the High Plains Sunday night, and then progress eastward into the region Monday, along and head of a convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV. Convection will likely be dissipating as it outruns any sort of quality airmass. Depending on the timing of the shortwave/MCV, redevelopment is possible during the late morning and afternoon hours. A more substantial shortwave is progged to swing across the central and northern Plains on Tuesday, lifting into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night, along with an associated cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this feature. If enough instability can build this far north, strong/severe storms are not out of the question. However, for now, this risk seems to be higher well to our south and southwest. Extended guidance then suggests a prolonged period of brisk northwest flow over the area, continuing into next weekend. This would favor cooler temperatures and afternoon chances for showers. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 950 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A broad area of -RA/-SHRA is overspreading the southern Wisconsin terminals this morning as an upper disturbance moves in from the Plains. Don`t anticipate much in the way of thunder with this activity given a lack of instability in place regionally. Will nevertheless be monitoring trends at southeastern terminals -- particularly ENW -- through this afternoon, where some short term guidance hints at an isolated clap of thunder is possible. Will make any -TSRA as obs/trends warrant. Expect gradual reductions in both VIS and CIG readings within precip, with prevailing mentions of MVFR/IFR continuing at each site in the 15Z update. Precip will push east this evening. Anticipate FG development overnight, with additional VIS reductions possible at the southern Wisconsin terminals. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic will retreat further east today. A weak surface low will then pass to the south of the area, bringing rain showers to at least the southern half of the lake. Winds will likely shift to the east and then north as the low moves through the region, especially across the southern half of the lake. Light and variable winds are likely Sunday as high pressure briefly moves through the area. Winds will return to southerly early next week and also increase a bit ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. A chance for showers and storms will return to Lake Michigan during this period as well. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee