680
FXUS63 KMKX 220917
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
417 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely through this morning.

- Most of southern WI will see some beneficial rainfall from the
cold front passage with amounts generally ranging from 0.1-0.7
inches with locally higher amounts from any stronger thunderstorms.

- Cooler/near normal temps are expected behind the cold front
  today through the start of the week with daily highs in the
  upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Today through Monday night:

Showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Wisconsin this
morning ahead of and along an approaching cold front. The cold front
is currently running southwest to northeast from La Crosse, to
Marathon to Vilas County. The chances for any severe weather
through this morning remains low with the lack of shear and very
low CAPE values (roughly around 100 J/kg at most when looking
at the Most Unstable CAPE). With the showers/storms out ahead of
the front being sustained along an upper level shortwaves and
some low level warm/moist air advection coverage is expected to
continue to ebb and flow. As the more organized shortwave energy
works east into northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, the
coverage over eastern Wisconsin is expected to increase through
roughly mid morning. The rain and storms are expected to linger
into this afternoon until the front clears.

Behind the front, winds will shift to the north to northwest with
cold air advection kicking in. Temperatures will cool across
southern Wisconsin and drier air will begin to move into the state.
Another upper level shortwave trough is expected to move through the
Great Lakes Region later Monday. Not expecting a lot with this
shortwave, as we will be both cooler and drier. Cloud cover is
expected to linger. The best chances for any shower activity
will be to our south and east. In the event that the mid levels
do not dry out quickly enough kept some low chance POPs in
southeast Wisconsin.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Tuesday through Saturday:

Cooler weather is expected to persist through much of the extended
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across southern Wisconsin. A
Rex blocking pattern attempts to set up across the central conus for
mid to late next week which will likely keep conditions dry across
much of the region. There`s still a lot of uncertatiny in this
pattern, as the upper level trough is expected to dig southward
into the Great Lakes Region with a few models trying to have
this pattern slightly retrograde. Low chance POPs around 20% or
less do sneak in among the average of model guidance during this
time, which seems reasonable given the uncertainty of the
location or the trough.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The showers and thunderstorms across much of southern Wisconsin are
expected to continue into the mid to late morning today. These
showers and storms are firing along and ahead of an approaching cold
front that is currently draped southwest to northeast across
central Wisconsin. The showers and storms could linger in the
afternoon across eastern Wisconsin. Behind the cold front there
looks to be dry weather for a short period of time before more
low end chances for rain returns late Monday night. Cloud cover
is expected to persist through much of this time. The lowest
cloud deck is expected to be associated with the rain and
thunderstorms with MVFR to VFR conditions likely.

South to southwest winds this morning will become north to
northwesterly behind the cold front late this morning into the
afternoon.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Expect southerly winds increase through the evening as low
pressure around 29.7 inches lifts from MN to Ontario, which will
in turn drag a cold front across WI and Lake Michigan this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the
cold front. Southwesterly winds will become northerly behind this
front tonight into Monday. Given the strong cold air moving over
the warmer lake waters, expecting to see gusty northerly winds
during this timeframe. Gusts up to 30 knots and an occasional
gale force gust cannot be ruled out, especially for the southern
portions of Lake Michigan. Will see winds weaken a bit for Monday
as high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes region, but the
northerly component will persist through the start of the week.


Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066...1 PM Sunday
     to 1 PM Monday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ071-WIZ072...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM
     Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM Sunday to 1 PM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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