Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
996 FXUS63 KMKX 160225 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 925 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth continues through this week. Daytime highs will range between five and fifteen degrees above normal. - Dry conditions prevail through this week, with the next chance for showers and storms not arriving until the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 919 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Scattered to broken to high clouds continue to gradually fill in across southern WI this evening and helping slow things cooling off as quickly as last night. However, there are some pockets of clearing mainly along and just west of the Kettle Moraine, which have seen temps dip faster. These areas also will have the better potential to see some patchy fog given the light winds and increased surface moisture, but widespread impacts are not expected. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with the summer-like warmth and dry pattern continue through the week. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 318 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Tonight through Monday night: A few cumulus clouds developed this afternoon in the west where dewpoints didn`t quite mix out enough. Temperatures are around 80 near the lakeshore where there is an easterly wind component off the cooler lake, and upper 80s to around 90 in inland areas. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s, similar to last night, with mostly clear skies. There is supposed to be an aurora event late tonight, so viewing should be ok if the cirrus can hold off or remain thin enough. Light winds and dewpoints in the lower 60s could allow for some patchy fog in low spots once again. Temperatures tomorrow will basically be a repeat of today. Mid and upper levels will be slightly drier than today as that upper ridge retrogrades a bit. Therefore, dewpoints should be a little cooler and diurnal cumulus clouds should be even more sparse. Monday night lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to around 60. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 318 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Tuesday through Sunday: Ridging and dry weather is going to hold over the eastern Great Lakes and Lake Michigan through at least Thursday night. We do not have any slight chance of rain in our forecast until early Friday morning and that is limited to west of Madison. Our extended forecast for next weekend brings in low chances (20 to 30 percent) of showers for Madison and west at times. There is low confidence for when the front will actually cross WI and that front may hold off until next week. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 919 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Scattered to broken high clouds continue to filter into southern WI this evening resulting in persistent VFR conditions. However there are a few breaks in this cloud cover and may produce some patchy fog tonight into early Monday morning mainly for areas along and just wet of the Kettle Moraine. If fog develops, will likely impact SBM and UES again. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through Monday with light southeasterly winds and diurnal driven cumulus developing through the afternoon. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 318 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure around 30.3 inches over the eastern Great Lakes and low pressure around 29.8 inches over the Plains will remain fairly stationary over the next several days. The high will weaken to 30.0 inches and the low will strengthen to 29.6 inches by Thursday. Winds over Lake Michigan will remain out of the south to southeast through this time, and generally be less than 15 kt. It is uncertain about when a front will move across Lake Michigan, but low pressure is expected to approach Wisconsin next weekend. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee