Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
216 FXUS63 KMKX 141509 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1009 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less humid today and Saturday with seasonable highs. - Thunderstorm chances return late Saturday into Sunday. - Hot weather is anticipated Sunday into the middle of the work week. Heat indices in the upper 90s may be possible Monday and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 1005 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Forecast remains on track as things remain quiet today with weak high pressure moving in overhead. A shortwave is sliding through aloft as well but due to the dry upper levels this is not anticipated to bring any precip to the region. Otherwise a fairly strong ridge will be nudging into the region behind that shortwave though some embedded shortwave activity will bring some storms and shower potential Saturday late evening and overnight, though focused more north and west. Kuroski && .SHORT TERM... Issued 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today through Saturday: Quiet, less humid, and dry conditions are expected today through Saturday as high pressure slides east over the Upper Great Lakes. A weak trough should sink south over the lake during the post dawn hours and generally wash out with southward extent. In our area, this process will drive a subtle wind shift off of Lake Michigan from northerly to more northeasterly. Northeast fetch off of the lake will work to dampen daytime highs, particularly in Sheboygan, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties as well as eastern portions of Fond du Lac County. High in these areas will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, while areas inland will see highs near 80s. Conditions remain dry during the daytime hours on Saturday with similar highs. Upper level WAA will lead to increasing cloud cover throughout the day. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 442 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday night through Thursday: 850mb warm advection is expected to cause an area of poorly organized showers and storms to lift northeast over the Upper Mississippi Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night ahead of an area of organizing surface low pressure. The rain will initially fight lingering low to mid lvl dry air from high pressure that will have exited east toward the Lower Great Lakes by that time, delaying the onset of the showers and storms. Current thinking is we`ll likely remain dry until after Midnight Sunday, with 40% PoPs moving in for areas northwest of the US Hwy 151 corridor during that time. MUCAPE will be below 1000 J/kg, amid effective bulk shear below 20 knots, limiting any potential for severe weather. The warm advection wave that sparked the rain will usher in hot conditions from Sunday into the middle of the work week. Daytime highs Sunday through Tuesday will be near 90, and dew points near 70 will support heat indices in the upper 90s, especially Monday and Tuesday. Slight chance to Chance PoPs (15 to 30%) linger during this time, as we`ll be on the northwest periphery of a massive ridge over the southeastern US. Disturbances will ride northeast around the ridge, perhaps bringing some passing chances for thunderstorms; details still need to be resolved by CAMs as the work week draws closer. Toward the end of the extended, there may be some relief, as models depict a cold front sagging south over Wisconsin, knocking down highs by 7 to 10 degrees. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 1005 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Mostly clear skies expected today with weak high pressure overhead and the atmosphere generally lacking moisture, however we could see some fair weather cu in the mid levels this afternoon but CIGS/VSBYS are expected to remain VFR through the forecast period. Winds will turn easterly through the day today with the lake breeze circulation triggering the easterly winds a bit earlier to the east, though light. Into Saturday with a system pushing in mid to upper level CIGS will slide it with southeast winds gradually picking up overnight as they shift more southerly. Some showers and storms are expected for parts of southern WI Saturday night into Sunday, though focused more north and west with some MVFR CIGS possible for a period. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Somewhat light and variable winds will become northerly over most of the lake around dawn this morning as high pressure of 30.2 inches sinks southeast into the Upper Great Lakes. Going into this afternoon, a weak trough will sink south over the lake and wash out. Winds over the southern half of the lake, south of the trough, will features northerly gusts up to 20 knots. These elevated winds should continue into tonight, before gradually tapering off. Winds then grow southeasterly as high pressure exits eastward by Saturday morning. Modest southeasterly winds will then persist through Saturday into Saturday night. Winds will then turn southerly and gusty on Sunday as a tighter pressure gradient moves over the Upper Great Lakes. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee