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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
594 FXUS63 KMKX 290931 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chance for some showers to develop across south central Wisconsin this afternoon. - River flooding and high water levels remain elevated into this weekend. Additional rises will be possible with any heavier rainfall. - Breezy northwest winds will become hazardous to Small Crafts Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today and Tonight: With the rest of the MCV to the east and larger scale subsidence settling in across southern Wisconsin, dry conditions have returned. Two cold fronts are still to our west early this morning in eastern MN and western central WI. Both cold fronts will shift eastward and move through the state today. The first front will move through southern Wisconsin this morning bringing some clearing skies and lower dewpoints. Behind the front the clear skies will increase instability a bit with CAPE values expected to climb to around 1000-1500 J/kg. While dewpoints will drop slightly they should remain around 60 degrees. In an environment with roughly 30 knots of shear, any mesoscale lifting has the potential to develop some scattered rain showers and storms. As the secondary cold front moves through this will bring the best potential for a few rain showers to develop this afternoon. The chances are low due to the uncertainty that we will get the instability, shear, lift and enough moisture all lining up at the right time when the front comes through. Guidance has reflected this low chance by having previous runs not even acknowledge these chances. The latest CAMs this morning have finally started to recognize this low threat for rain and storms early this morning which does increase confidence slightly. POPs this afternoon remain around 20-25%. If any storms due develop across portions of south central and east central Wisconsin then there will be a potential for some gusty winds and small hail. Sounding have a very dry low level profile which will help with the downburst potential. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Sunday through Friday: High pressure will begin to build into the Great Lakes Region from the Northern Plains Sunday into Monday. This will bring dry weather and cooler conditions back to southern Wisconsin. The coolest day will be Sunday where high temperatures struggle to climb into the low 70s. As the high pressure system begins to move overhead Monday, southerly winds return bringing some weak WAA back to the state. This will cause temperatures to increase slightly with highs in the low to mid 70s. This brief period of quiet weather will come to an end Tuesday. Tuesday through Friday a more active pattern once again sets up across the state. A few upper level troughs and pulses of PVA are expected to move through the Great Lakes Region during this time. This pattern will promote multiple frontal passages and the sustained southerly winds will allow persistent WAA. Given all of this, southern Wisconsin again looks to be in a situation with warm and moist conditions. This could lead to near daily chances for rainfall. Due to this guidance has painted in broad brushed POPs Tuesday through Friday. Don`t expect any day to be a complete wash out at this time, so worth keep an eye on this time period to see where the best chance for rain line up. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Predominately MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the morning. With the heavy rain having cleared southern Wisconsin early this morning, the saturated ground has lead to the development of some patchy fog. Any fog that develops should burn off after sunrise. Ceilings around 500 feet to 2 kft are expected to persist until roughly mid morning before skies begin to clear. As skies start to clear winds are expected to become westerly with the passage of a weak cold front. A secondary cold front is expected to pass this afternoon which will cause winds to become northwesterly and breezy. As this secondary cold front passes there will be a small chance (20-25% or less) for some additional showers and thunderstorms across south central and east central Wisconsin. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Once this frontal boundary passes, clear skies are expected through Sunday. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 South to southeast winds will continue early this morning as low pressure of 29.5 inches moves eastward across the northern Great Lakes Region. A pair of cold fronts will slide southeast today causing winds to shift to southwesterly by midday, and then northwest by the evening. Gusty northwest winds are then expected tonight through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect during this time for the gusty northwest winds. Northwest winds will weaken Sunday night into Monday and become northeast to easterly as high pressure of 30.3 inches builds in from the Northern Plains. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM Saturday to 9 AM Sunday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee