Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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594
FXUS63 KMKX 290931
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance for some showers to develop across south central
  Wisconsin this afternoon.

- River flooding and high water levels remain elevated into
  this weekend. Additional rises will be possible with any
  heavier rainfall.

- Breezy northwest winds will become hazardous to Small Crafts
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today and Tonight:

With the rest of the MCV to the east and larger scale subsidence
settling in across southern Wisconsin, dry conditions have
returned. Two cold fronts are still to our west early this
morning in eastern MN and western central WI. Both cold fronts
will shift eastward and move through the state today. The first
front will move through southern Wisconsin this morning bringing
some clearing skies and lower dewpoints. Behind the front the
clear skies will increase instability a bit with CAPE values
expected to climb to around 1000-1500 J/kg. While dewpoints will
drop slightly they should remain around 60 degrees. In an
environment with roughly 30 knots of shear, any mesoscale
lifting has the potential to develop some scattered rain
showers and storms.

As the secondary cold front moves through this will bring the
best potential for a few rain showers to develop this afternoon.
The chances are low due to the uncertainty that we will get the
instability, shear, lift and enough moisture all lining up at
the right time when the front comes through. Guidance has
reflected this low chance by having previous runs not even
acknowledge these chances. The latest CAMs this morning have
finally started to recognize this low threat for rain and
storms early this morning which does increase confidence
slightly. POPs this afternoon remain around 20-25%. If any
storms due develop across portions of south central and east
central Wisconsin then there will be a potential for some gusty
winds and small hail. Sounding have a very dry low level
profile which will help with the downburst potential.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Sunday through Friday:

High pressure will begin to build into the Great Lakes Region
from the Northern Plains Sunday into Monday. This will bring dry
weather and cooler conditions back to southern Wisconsin. The
coolest day will be Sunday where high temperatures struggle to
climb into the low 70s. As the high pressure system begins to
move overhead Monday, southerly winds return bringing some weak
WAA back to the state. This will cause temperatures to increase
slightly with highs in the low to mid 70s. This brief period of
quiet weather will come to an end Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday a more active pattern once again sets up
across the state. A few upper level troughs and pulses of PVA
are expected to move through the Great Lakes Region during this
time. This pattern will promote multiple frontal passages and
the sustained southerly winds will allow persistent WAA. Given
all of this, southern Wisconsin again looks to be in a situation
with warm and moist conditions. This could lead to near daily
chances for rainfall. Due to this guidance has painted in broad
brushed POPs Tuesday through Friday. Don`t expect any day to be
a complete wash out at this time, so worth keep an eye on this
time period to see where the best chance for rain line up.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Predominately MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected to continue
through the rest of the morning. With the heavy rain having
cleared southern Wisconsin early this morning, the saturated
ground has lead to the development of some patchy fog. Any fog
that develops should burn off after sunrise. Ceilings around 500
feet to 2 kft are expected to persist until roughly mid morning
before skies begin to clear. As skies start to clear winds are
expected to become westerly with the passage of a weak cold
front.

A secondary cold front is expected to pass this afternoon which
will cause winds to become northwesterly and breezy. As this
secondary cold front passes there will be a small chance (20-25%
or less) for some additional showers and thunderstorms across
south central and east central Wisconsin. Gusty winds and small
hail will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Once
this frontal boundary passes, clear skies are expected through
Sunday.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

South to southeast winds will continue early this morning as low
pressure of 29.5 inches moves eastward across the northern Great
Lakes Region. A pair of cold fronts will slide southeast today
causing winds to shift to southwesterly by midday, and then
northwest by the evening. Gusty northwest winds are then expected
tonight through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
during this time for the gusty northwest winds. Northwest winds
will weaken Sunday night into Monday and become northeast to
easterly as high pressure of 30.3 inches builds in from the
Northern Plains.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Saturday to 9 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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