Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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943 FXUS63 KMKX 242028 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - More lines of thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening but the severe storm risk is small. - Another round of widespread showers and storms on Sunday with at least a small potential for severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: The lines of storms over ern IA into sw WI are aligned with sfc-850 mb frontogenesis which will shift ewd late this afternoon and evening. Given the lack of meaningful MLCAPE and very high MLCIN, expect these storms to remain elevated. Thus large hail would be the main threat with these storms, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible over sw WI. Nwly winds and cold advection will then drop temps into the middle 40s to lower 50s by sunrise Sat. High pressure will then shift across the state on Sat with temps rebounding into the lower 70s for the afternoon. Another round of strong cyclogenesis is then expected Sun as an amplifying shortwave trough approaches from the central Great Plains. The 992 mb sfc low will track from sw WI to east central WI with widespread showers and storms for srn WI. There is uncertainty with the degree of sfc based CAPE and convection for Sun but strong lift and shear would support a SVR risk especially over se WI. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Monday through Friday: A couple shortwave troughs within nwly flow aloft will then affect srn WI for Mon-Tue with chances for showers and storms. High amplitude ridging will then try to shift ewd into the Upper MS River Valley and wrn Great Lakes late in the week. This will bring a warming trend and drier wx. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Rounds of showers and storms will continue this afternoon and evening. Areas of MVFR Cigs and Vsbys may briefly occur in the wake of any of the stronger storms. Areas of MVFR Cigs are also expected for a brief time along and after the passage of the cold front this evening. Skies will then clear during the overnight hours with VFR conditions into Wed. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Low pressure around 29.4 inches moving into northwest Minnesota will track into far southeast Manitoba tonight. Its cold front will progress eastward across Lake Michigan late tonight. Thus modest east to southeast winds this afternoon and evening will shift westerly late tonight and continue into Saturday morning. High pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across Lake Michigan for Saturday afternoon and evening, before another low pressure area around 29.4 inches approaches from the west and moves across either central or northern Lake Michigan Sunday night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the lake tonight and once again Sunday and Sunday night. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee