


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
260 FXUS63 KMKX 172108 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 308 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds continue through tonight across Lake Michigan. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect into Tuesday morning. - A period of cold temperatures, with bitterly cold wind chills at times, continues through Thursday morning. - For tonight into Tuesday morning, a high end Cold Weather Advisory is in effect. Expecting wind chills of negative 24 to negative 29 degrees, but a few areas of negative 30 degrees or below are possible for a few hours. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Tonight through Tuesday night: Wind chill expectations for tonight have not changed. A combination of minimum temps -5 to -15 Fahrenheit coincident with surface winds of 5 to 10 MPH (with a few gusts to 15 MPH possible) will result in wind chills of -24 to -29. Note that this is considered a `high end` Advisory event (rather than a Warning-level event). In a few areas, the best combination of wind and low temps may lead to a very brief period of -30 wind chills (particularly in Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties, as well as elevated terrain in southwestern WI). The Cold Weather Advisory runs from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Tuesday. Within this window, the worst wind chills can be expected from 5 AM to 8 AM. Frostbite on exposed skin may occur in as little as 10 to 20 minutes. Bundle up! Daytime highs of 6 to 10 degrees above zero expected Tuesday under mostly clear skies. Dry weather continues. For Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, expecting low temps of -1 to -10, with minimum wind chills of -15 to -23. Hence, not as bad as tonight, but another advisory is possible. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Wednesday through Monday: Precipitation: Mostly dry weather expected throughout the extended forecast. A passing upper-level low (most evident at 500mb) brings a 10 to 30% chance for brief light snow Wednesday evening, only a dusting if applicable (very fast tracked system). A similar story (with even lower chances) for a shortwave trough passing late Friday / early Saturday. Temperature Trends: The present `Arctic Airmass` is progged to reside here through mid week, followed by a gradual warming trend. By late this week, daytime highs rise to the 20s. Then to seasonal norms by around Saturday (highs in the low 30s, lows in the teens and 20s). Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Though diurnal cumulus clouds (around 3,000 ft) are just starting to develop, coverage has been more FEW than SCT. Hence, widespread VFR is likely to continue. Dry weather continues throughout the TAF period, with mostly clear skies except for a few high altitude (over 20,000 ft) clouds at times. Northwest winds. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect into Tuesday morning as an Arctic airmass builds into Lake Michigan. Arctic high pressure of 30.7 inches builds into the northern Great Plains tonight, strengthening to 31.1 inches by Tuesday morning. Brisk northwest winds will therefore continue into Tuesday. High pressure then dominates over the northern Plains into Minnesota Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night, bringing light northwesterly winds. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...9 PM Monday to noon Tuesday. LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 AM Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 PM Monday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee