Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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260
FXUS63 KMKX 172108
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds continue through tonight across Lake
  Michigan. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect into
  Tuesday morning.

- A period of cold temperatures, with bitterly cold wind chills
  at times, continues through Thursday morning.

- For tonight into Tuesday morning, a high end Cold Weather
  Advisory is in effect. Expecting wind chills of negative 24
  to negative 29 degrees, but a few areas of negative 30 degrees
  or below are possible for a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Wind chill expectations for tonight have not changed. A
combination of minimum temps -5 to -15 Fahrenheit coincident
with surface winds of 5 to 10 MPH (with a few gusts to 15 MPH
possible) will result in wind chills of -24 to -29. Note that
this is considered a `high end` Advisory event (rather than a
Warning-level event). In a few areas, the best combination of
wind and low temps may lead to a very brief period of -30 wind
chills (particularly in Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties, as
well as elevated terrain in southwestern WI). The Cold Weather
Advisory runs from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Tuesday. Within
this window, the worst wind chills can be expected from 5 AM to
8 AM. Frostbite on exposed skin may occur in as little as 10 to
20 minutes. Bundle up!

Daytime highs of 6 to 10 degrees above zero expected Tuesday
under mostly clear skies. Dry weather continues. For Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning, expecting low temps of -1
to -10, with minimum wind chills of -15 to -23. Hence, not as
bad as tonight, but another advisory is possible.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Precipitation:
Mostly dry weather expected throughout the extended forecast. A
passing upper-level low (most evident at 500mb) brings a 10 to
30% chance for brief light snow Wednesday evening, only a
dusting if applicable (very fast tracked system). A similar
story (with even lower chances) for a shortwave trough passing
late Friday / early Saturday.

Temperature Trends:
The present `Arctic Airmass` is progged to reside here through
mid week, followed by a gradual warming trend. By late this
week, daytime highs rise to the 20s. Then to seasonal norms by
around Saturday (highs in the low 30s, lows in the teens and
20s).

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Though diurnal cumulus clouds (around 3,000 ft) are just
starting to develop, coverage has been more FEW than SCT. Hence,
widespread VFR is likely to continue. Dry weather continues
throughout the TAF period, with mostly clear skies except for a
few high altitude (over 20,000 ft) clouds at times. Northwest
winds.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 305 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect into Tuesday
morning as an Arctic airmass builds into Lake Michigan.

Arctic high pressure of 30.7 inches builds into the northern
Great Plains tonight, strengthening to 31.1 inches by Tuesday
morning. Brisk northwest winds will therefore continue into
Tuesday. High pressure then dominates over the northern Plains
into Minnesota Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night, bringing
light northwesterly winds.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
     WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...9 PM
     Monday to noon Tuesday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until 9 AM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 PM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM Monday.

&&

$$

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