080
FXUS63 KMKX 221545
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1045 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty westerly winds up to 30 mph are expected across southern
  Wisconsin today. Winds decelerate gradually this evening.

- Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms may develop in the mid
  afternoon through evening hours today. No severe storms are
  expected.

- Next round of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday, but no
  severe storms are anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1045 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

West winds with frequent gusts to 30 mph are ongoing across the
CWA, and are expected to continue this afternoon before
gradually decelerating this evening. CAMs do hint at isolated
development of showers and weak thunderstorms in the mid
afternoon and evening hrs today, but HREF ensemble maximum
SBCAPE is roughly 1000 joules, and severe weather from said
storms is unlikely. PoPs are currently 5 to 15% percent for said
activity, but could be increased to 20-30% if and where
isolated development appears on radar.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 424 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Today through Thursday:

Gusty southwest to west winds are ongoing behind the cold
frontal passage. Gusts up to 30 kt/34 mph are common right now,
with higher gusts in far southeast WI. Low clouds spread into
all of southern WI and will remain in place through the day and
possibly into the evening. The clouds are due to steep low level
lapse rates with cyclonic flow overhead and are in the 925-850mb
height range with bases between 1300 and 2500 ft AGL. Clouds may
be thick enough and there may be another push of vorticity
advection this afternoon to support the development of a few
showers or sprinkles, mainly west of Madison. High temperatures
today will be much cooler, in the lower 70s.

Winds will diminish quickly this evening as an inversion sets
in. With clearing skies and the light winds, patchy fog is
possible early Thursday morning as lows drop down to the lower
50s.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 424 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Friday through Tuesday:

A low pressure trough will approach from the Northern Plains and
cross WI on Friday. Highs will creep into the upper 70s to
around 80. The main closed upper low will be stationed over the
MN/ND border, but the vorticity will extend southeastward as it
tries to phase with a weaker shortwave trough tracking across
the southeast States. The surface front will lag behind the
upper trough and usher cooler and drier air into southern WI
Friday night, ending the precip chances. Elevated instability up
to 1000 j/kg but limited shear will mean thunderstorms will
bear watching for small hail and gusty winds. That precip will
end Friday evening with the passage of a cold front.

Highs will only be around 70 on Saturday with sunshine and high
pressure. This cooler pattern will stick around through Tuesday
The next shortwave trough is expected to roll across WI and IL
on Sunday and bring another round of showers and a few storms.
This system will be slower to move out of the area, so shower
chances linger through Monday night and potentially Tuesday
thanks to the upper low sitting over the Eastern Great Lakes.
Warmer air returns Wednesday.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1045 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

MVFR ceilings currently overspread the region in the cold sector
of the departed low pressure system, but gradual lifting and
scattering of the cloud deck is expected to unfold early this
afternoon, leaving most areas VFR by the mid afternoon. Gusty
west winds continue today, decelerating gradually this evening.
Light southwest winds and clear skies expected tonight.

Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms could develop today in
the mid afternoon and evening, then clear out tonight.
Confidence is too low (15%) for inclusion in the TAFs at this
time, but amendments will be made if needed.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 424 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Southwest winds are blustery behind the cold front so I
extended the Gale Warning until 6 AM. For the nearshore areas,
the gale remains in effect for areas south of the North Point
Light until 6 AM, and the gale for the northern zones was
cancelled. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for gusty
offshore winds up to 25 kt through late afternoon.

Southeast winds will increase Friday as a low pressure trough
tracks into WI, but winds and waves should remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 5 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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