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000
FXUS63 KMKX 230001
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
701 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...

Quiet evening all around southern Wisconsin and the forecast is
already in good shape so no changes are expected other than
accounting for short term trends.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR forecast through the period. High pressure centered across
New England will continue to extend its influence into the region
keeping conditions quiet. Winds will remain E/NE below 15kts. An
upper level disturbance will pass to the SE of the area Monday night
and this feature will spread additional mid/high level cloudiness
across southern Wisconsin beginning tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 209 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A 500 mb mid level low will remain well south of the area on
Monday, with weak ridging across southern Wisconsin. The
influence of the surface high centered well east of the area will
keep things dry. Only a few high clouds.

Monday night Through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is
Medium.

The 500 mb low moves slowly east northeast Monday night into
Tuesday, staying well southeast of the area. A few models bring a
hundredth of precipitation into the far southeast on the
periphery of the 500 mb low circulation. Kept a very low PoP in
for now. The north edge of Mid and even some low clouds may brush
the southeast.

Cold air advection occurs later Tuesday night on the backside of
the eastern U.S. low. The models are in decent agreement with a
rather strong 500 mb shortwave trough moving southeast across
Wisconsin Tuesday night.

The main question will be how moisture moves into the area ahead
of the trough. For now, have only a few north areas with low end
PoPs.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A period of quiet weather looks in store for Wednesday into
Thursday morning, as high pressure passes through or just south of
the region.

Models then are indicating a cold front to move southeast through
the region Thursday or Thursday evening. They also bring a fairly
robust and deep 500 mb shortwave trough southeast through the
region. There is some moisture to work, along with steep low
level lapse rates. Continued blended model PoPs for Thursday into
Friday.

Quiet weather then returns Friday night into Sunday. Temperatures
should be a little below seasonal normals, moderating back to
normal Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR with high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes.
Light northeast to east winds.

MARINE...

High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will bring
light northeast to east winds and low waves. Elevated northeast
winds will bring building waves Tuesday night into Wednesday, that
may result in a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...BM
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...BM
Monday Night through Sunday...Hentz