Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
753 FXUS63 KMKX 170223 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 923 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth continues through this week. Daytime highs will range between five and fifteen degrees above normal. - Dry conditions prevail through most of the week, with the next chance for showers and storms this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 915 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Rinse and repeat from previous nights where scattered high clouds work their way across southern WI. Where there is pockets of clearing, may result in patchy ground fog development given the light winds and increased low-level moisture, especially fro areas along the Kettle Moraine. Overall no major changes from the previous forecast other than chasing temp trends. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 236 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Tonight through Wednesday: Warm and dry conditions continue across the region today, with little change expected over the next few days. Highs tomorrow and Wednesday should be very similar to today, with mid to upper 80s expected, warmest across the west. Southeast winds will continue to advect dry low and mid level air into the region, with afternoon dewpoints mixing down into the 50s both days. The dry airmass and increasingly dry ground will result in 30-35 degree diurnal swings in many cases, with overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night falling into the mid 50s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 236 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Wednesday Night through Monday: Moisture will gradually increase heading into Thursday and Friday, as a front inches closer to the region from the west. Not looking at any meaningful PoPs until at least Thursday night, with 30-40 percent chances in place through the weekend. That said, there is considerable uncertainty regarding how quickly the upper level ridge will be able to break down, which will impact the eastward advancement of the front. Highs are currently forecast to be a bit lower during this time as well (mid to upper 70s to low 80s), but this will be dependent on having increased cloud cover and rain chances in the area. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 915 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Similar flight conditions compared to the previous nights with high clouds scattered across the area and calm to light winds. Pockets of clearing will once again result in patchy of ground fog development for terminals along/near the Kettle Moraine mainly around SBM down through UES. Otherwise, light southeasterly winds expected for Tuesday with prevailing VFR conditions. May see a lake breeze develop where winds briefly increase and gain a more easterly component through Tuesday afternoon before returning to calm/light winds. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 236 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure over the Northeast and low pressure over eastern Montana will remain fairly stationary into Wednesday. The high will weaken Thursday, with the low strengthening slightly. Light to modest south to southeast winds are expected over the lake during this time. Low pressure may approach the region sometime this weekend. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee