Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
916 FXUS63 KMKX 290822 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 322 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry pattern for midweek before shower and thunderstorm chances return later Friday into Saturday. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 313 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Today through Thursday night: Clouds and a bit of drizzle will linger across the eastern half of the CWA through daybreak on the backside of the departing upper- level trough. Then clearing associated with subsidence to the west should spread east through the morning as surface high builds across the region. However, may see some shallow diurnal cumulus develop late morning through the afternoon. Otherwise, today will be dry and pleasant with lighter winds and temps climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s. May see a lake breeze develop this afternoon given the lighter background flow and result in "cooler by the lake" conditions. Expect skies to clear as subsidence and the surface high pressure gradually work their way overhead. Given the clearing skies and light winds should allow for radiation cooling to drop temps overnight into the upper 40s to lower 40s. While overnight temps are generally expected to remain in the 40s, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see a few hour window where temps could fall below 40F with the 00z NBM <10% chance while the 00z HREF progs a 15-40% chance. If a few locations end up dipping below 40F, cannot rule out some patch frost development, especially for areas along and just west of the Kettle Moraine. The quiet pattern will continue into Thursday as the surface high lingers only slightly shifting east as the upper-level ridge axis builds over the Upper Great Lakes region. Will see a southerly flow begin to return, especially out west and will see a bit warmer temps given the mostly clear conditions. Looking at highs in low to mid 70s for inland location while a bit cooler for areas closer to the lake with another potential lake breeze developing. Thursday night will be quiet as well with temps a few degrees warmer than the previous night, but still generally be in the 40s. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 313 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Friday through Tuesday: While Friday during the day looks warmer and dry, our quiet and dry stretch looks to come to end later Friday evening into Saturday as the upper-level ridge slides east. Most mid-range models prog a mid- level shortwave trough to lift in from the Central Plains later on Friday bring a wing of dCVA across the area. Paired with low-level WAA and moisture advecting into the region with PWATs creeping above 1 inch will be enough to spur a round of showers and thunderstorms through the day Saturday. Otherwise, we enter a more progressive pattern through the first half of next week with periodic shower and storm chances with a series of passing upper-level disturbance. Otherwise, more summer-like and above normal temps are looking increasingly likely for the start of meteorological summer (June 1st). The 00z NBM along with GEFS, EPS, and CMCE continues to prog higher probabilities (50-80%) of daily highs nearing or even exceeding 80F through early next week. However, temps may be change depending on the precip chances and coverage. Nevertheless, the forecast leans itself to the changing of the meteorological seasons. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 313 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Some mid-level clouds and light rain/drizzle linger east of I-39 corridor, mainly closer to Lake Michigan, but are expected to gradually clear through daybreak as the rain pushes further east. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the day with lighter north winds turning more northeasterly through the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. May see some diurnal driven mid-level (4-6 kft) cumulus clouds this afternoon, but should clear as a lake breeze develops and pushes inland. Otherwise, influence from the high pressure will continue to bring light winds and VFR conditions through Thursday. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 313 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A broad area of low pressure continues to slide east today. Expect breezy northerly winds on the backside of the departing low pressure to extend across Lake Michigan today with gust up to around 20-25 knots, especially across the southern half through the afternoon. Then winds will weaken overnight into Thursday as high pressure works it way over Lake Michigan through Friday. Lighter and variable winds will persist during this time before picking up later Friday into the weekend as the high pressure slides east and low pressure deepens across central Canada. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will return from Friday night through the beginning of next week. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee