531
FXUS63 KMKX 100252
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
952 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy north winds continue over the lake, with a Small Craft
  Advisory in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan
  into the early morning hours on Monday.

- Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday
  through the remainder of the week

- Warmer temperatures likely mid to late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 940 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some sprinkles to light rain have been reported out of a low
cloud deck behind a southward sinking backdoor cold front. These
areas of sprinkles and light rain are mainly confined east of
Interstate 41, north of Milwaukee, and are anticipated to sink
southward and dissipate over the next few hours. Sprinkles may
make it as far south as Milwaukee, with less confidence this
activity makes it farther south toward Racine and Kenosha.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 302 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tonight and Monday:

A back door cold front is advancing down the lake this afternoon
which will bring cooler air onshore for places along the
lakeshore. Winds will shift from northwest to northeast for
lakeshore areas. The breezy northwest winds should prevent the
wind shift and cooler temperatures from advancing further
inland. Broad cyclonic flow continues to linger across the Great
Lakes Region tonight into Monday. Increased temperatures and
mixing have lowered dewpoints this afternoon. The lower
available moisture within the column will make it very
difficult to get any drizzle or sprinkles of the cloud cover
advancing through central Wisconsin and into southern Wisconsin.
Kept POPs null to reflect this. Breezy west to northwest winds
will continue with the increased diurnal mixing through the
afternoon and into the evening before beginning to wane again
overnight tonight.

High pressure will advance toward the state from the west Monday
and will be overhead Monday night into Tuesday. This will keep
conditions dry. Winds will be lighter Monday as the high
pressure builds in. Temperatures are expected to be a bit cooler
tomorrow with the light northerly flow.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 302 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

High pressure over Lake MI Tue AM will track to the lower Great
Lakes by the end of the day. Meanwhile a shortwave trough and low
level sly winds and warm advection will move into south central WI
by late afternoon or early evening. The shortwave trough will
then pass Tue nt. PWs will increase to 1.1-1.3 inches and fcst
soundings do attempt to saturate for brief periods, more so toward
central WI. Increased PoPs to 50 percent north of MSN and MKE
with 20 percent toward the IL border. A weak sfc trough will then
follow for early Wed AM with lower PWs for Wed, but continued warm
advection with high temps in the middle 80s away from the lake.

Wnwly flow will prevail aloft for the remainder of the week. Warm,
moist advection will likely initiate a MCS over srn MN Wed nt but
could track sewd across ern IA into nw IL. SW WI could get clipped
by this MCS but will not rule out sct showers and storms elsewhere
given the warm, moist advection over the entire area. A warm front
will probably become stationary near the WI and IL border for Thu
with warm, moist advection north of the front over srn WI
continuing chances for showers and storms. A cold front will
finally pass Thu nt with high pressure returning for late Fri. The
high will move ewd on Sat with upper ridging aloft in response to
lee side low pressure that will track from WY into MN and
eventually Ontario through Sun. The tail end of its upper trough
may then bring scattered showers and storms to srn WI for
Sunday.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 950 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some sprinkles to light rain have been reported at KSBM out of
an IFR to MVFR cloud deck behind a southward sinking backdoor
cold front. These areas of sprinkles and light rain are mainly
confined to the lakeshore north of KMKE at this time, and are
anticipated to sink southward and dissipate over the next few
hours. Sprinkles/low ceilings may make it as far south as
KMKE, with less confidence this activity makes it farther south
toward KRAC and KENW. Clouds should remain mainly VFR away from
this pocket of rain/low level moisture

Otherwise, north winds will remain light to moderate out of the
north overnight with skies gradually clearing by dawn on Monday.
VFR should persist tomorrow, with some modest breeziness to 15
knots continuing into the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 302 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Breezy west winds this afternoon will become north to northeast
as a trough and back door cold front advances south down the
lake. The breezy winds are due to the tighter pressure gradient
between high pressure centered in the far Northern Plains and
low pressure center just east of James Bay. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect due to the breezy winds through this
afternoon. The high and low pressure systems will shift eastward
overtime Monday, which will result in diminishing winds. As the
high pressure begins to move overhead Monday night into Tuesday
light and variable winds are expected. Southerly winds will pick
up behind the high pressure system Tuesday into Wednesday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee