Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
407 FXUS63 KMKX 080847 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers are likely today with a small chance of thunder - Another breezy day is expected on Sunday - Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday through the remainder of the week && .SHORT TERM... Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today through Sunday: Showers are expected today as a shortwave moved through. Bumped up precip chances based on good agreement among models for measurable precip, with the HREF showing high (80-100%) of members with at least 0.01" of rain over a 6 hour period. Though precipitable water values are expected to rise to 1-1.25 inches today, not expecting very high precip totals due to limited convective potential and difficulty obtaining deep saturation per model soundings. Still think there could be a few rumbles of thunder based on some weak instability in models along with some lightning currently associated with the upstream showers. Lowered high temps a bit from the previous forecast due to higher confidence in cloud and showers for a good chunk of the day. Clouds will decrease tonight behind the departing trough, though expecting to in increase in clouds again on Sunday as weak trough drops through the broad cyclonic flow. Moisture increases a bit Sunday ahead of this trough, but soundings don`t look favorable for showers, so left the forecast dry. High temps tomorrow should recover to within a couple degrees of normals, though breezy northwest winds are expected through the day. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Monday through Friday: Latest model runs continue to suggest multiple shortwaves moving through during the upcoming work week. Kept precip chances on the lower end for now given model differences in timing and strength of the waves. Should see temps gradually warm through the week as the northwest flow pattern gradually becomes more zonal across the region. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Showers are expected later this morning and into the afternoon hours as a trough moves through the area. Not out of the question for a few rumbles of thunder as well. Ceilings will likely drop to the 1.5-2.5 kft range as the showers move through, with decreasing clouds later today into tonight behind this system. Light and variable winds this morning will become northerly north to south later morning into early afternoon as a front drops through the area. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Winds will be west to southwest through the day today in the north, while become northerly in the south as a front drops through the area. Breezy northwest winds are then expected Sunday between high pressure over the Northern Plains and low pressure just east of James Bay in Canada. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed tomorrow. Breezy northerly winds are likely Monday as the high continues to build in from the west, with lighter winds Monday night as the high moves overhead. Southerly winds are expected to pick up a bit Tuesday on the back side of the high. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee