Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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173 FXUS62 KMLB 061641 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1241 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 IMPACT: TS likely for Greater Orlando terminals, including MCO, between 06/19Z-07/00Z. A 15% risk for storms with severe wind/hail. DISCUSSION: Plentiful instability will overturn this afternoon as the sea breezes collide over the peninsula, sparking scattered to numerous storms between 19Z and 00Z. Gusty winds to 30-50 KT and coin- sized hail are possible in a few storms, along with frequent lightning. Highest coverage will be around Greater Orlando initially before drifting toward the coastal sites through 03Z before diminishing overnight. Prevailing winds will be SW 5-15 KT, except E/SE 8-15 KT for the coastal terminals. VFR except near storms. Overnight, light/variable winds are expected. Another round of SCT storms expected Friday beyond 07/20Z. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 -Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening. -Hot conditions forecast today and through the weekend, with near record highs and heat index values in the 100 to 107 range. -Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend. Morning central FL soundings at TBW and XMR indicate the potential for isolated strong to severe storms across east central FL this afternoon. MUCAPE is near 3500 J/kg, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates near 7 degs C/km should support isolated storms with the potential for one inch hail (5% chance) and downburst winds (5% chance) up to 60 mph. Short range convective models indicate the sea breeze should push slowly inland through early afternoon with initial convection developing near or inland from the St Johns River basin. By 3-7 pm, isolated storms may become strong to severe across inland areas including metro Orlando and Osceola county. By early evening storms will likely propagate southward toward Okeechobee county and also back toward the east coast with westerly steering flow aloft. Frequent lightning will also accompany some of the storms. Before receiving some rain-cooled air in some areas with late afternoon storms, high temps should reach the mid to upper 90s across portions of the interior. The combination of the heat and humidity will produce peak heat index values in the 102-107 range (close to heat advisory criteria). Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities today. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Update...South winds to 10 knots this morning with seas near 2 ft at buoys 41009/41010 will support generally good boating conditions today. There will be a lightning and strong wind gust threat with storms moving toward the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters generally from 6pm to 9pm this evening. Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic slides southward across the waters with lighter winds around 5-8 knots out of the S/SSW this morning, but eventually becoming SE and increasing to 10-15 knots into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across land areas into the mid afternoon and through the evening from boundary collisions across the interior. Much of this activity should remain over land before it diminishes through late evening, but some storms may be able to shift back toward the coast and offshore, especially off of the Volusia/Brevard and Indian River coastline. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, producing wind gusts up to 40-60 mph and small hail. Winds veer southerly and remain elevated around 10-15 knots into the evening, with winds continuing to veer to the W/SW overnight. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet. Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and storm chances begin to decrease into the weekend before rising once again into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 94 73 93 / 30 50 10 20 MCO 74 95 76 96 / 30 50 10 20 MLB 72 92 74 93 / 40 50 20 20 VRB 72 93 73 94 / 40 50 20 30 LEE 75 94 76 96 / 20 40 10 10 SFB 74 96 75 97 / 20 50 10 20 ORL 75 95 76 96 / 30 50 10 20 FPR 71 94 73 94 / 40 50 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Volkmer AVIATION...Heil