546
FXUS62 KMLB 071424
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1024 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Update...Temperatures as of 10am already climbing to the low to mid
80s across east central Florida, setting up for what will certainly
be another abnormally warm day. A few sites may flirt with record
highs especially for locations across the interior, but this will be
dependent on timing of thunderstorm activity and cooling rain
effects. Another active stormy afternoon is forecast once again
today, although parameters suggest a lower hail and wind threat than
yesterday. Still, frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to
50 mph cannot be ruled out in any storms that develop, along with a
brief spin up with multiple boundary collisions. Today, the focus
for activity will be just west of I-95, with storms pushing towards
the coast through sunset. Have increased PoPs to likely over a
larger area in the update which will mainly occur between 3pm and
8pm today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VCTS starting 20Z-21Z and running through 02Z-03Z for ISO-SCT
TSRA/SHRA INVOF all ECFL terminals. Enough consistency the last
few model runs to justify TEMPOs for TSRA impacts 21Z-23Z at the
Orlando area terminals and 22Z-24Z at KDAB-KTIX. CIGs expected to
remain VFR, with heavy rain and gusty winds the primary impacts.
Light SW-W winds once again favor the WCSB, forecast to reach
KLEE ~18Z, and KMCO/KISM ~20Z if TSRA doesn`t develop first,
increasing winds to ~10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals ~16Z
to the south and ~20Z to the north, shifting winds to E-SE 10-15
kts. Winds become light/VRB after 02Z Friday night, and remain
light into much of Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of
isolated showers and lightning storms. Winds back to the ESE as
the east coast breeze increases to around 10-15 kt. Seas generally
2 ft. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity
of storms.

Saturday-Tuesday...Lower rain chances this weekend and light
surface winds are expected, prior to sea breeze development. In
the afternoon SSE winds 10-15 kt behind the breeze. Winds increase
up to 17 kt Sun. and Mon. night but remain around 15 kt or less
during the day. Seas 2-3 ft. Rain and lightning storms increase in
coverage next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  74  95  75 /  40  30  20  10
MCO  95  76  97  77 /  60  20  30  20
MLB  93  74  93  75 /  60  40  20  20
VRB  93  74  94  75 /  50  40  30  30
LEE  96  76  97  76 /  40  10  20  10
SFB  95  75  97  76 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  96  76  97  78 /  60  20  30  10
FPR  94  73  94  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley
DSS...Volkmer