Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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171 FXUS62 KMLB 202325 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 725 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 IMPACT: - Increasing shower chances overnight (40-70%) with low (20%) chance of storms for DAB/SFB/TIX/MCO/LEE, along with occasionally reduced CIGs (MVFR). A rather complicated forecast over the next 12-24 HR. Low pressure arriving from the Atlantic overnight will bring periods of showers to areas near and north of ISM/MCO/MLB. CIGs may go into prevailing MVFR between 08-12Z over some of these areas (20-40% probability) with only a 10% chance of reaching IFR. Winds should actually lessen overnight into Friday morning, becoming variable as the disturbance moves nearby. Exception to this is the potential for brief gusts to 25 KT in heavier showers. Showers will be less frequent for the Treasure Coast terminals overnight. On Friday, showers gradually diminish over our Greater Orlando/Daytona terminals by late morning/afternoon as winds try to turn from SSE to SE 5-15 KT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Key Messages: - An area of low pressure (AL92) will approach the southeast U.S. coast late tonight into Friday. NHC is monitoring the disturbance for tropical development. - Poor to hazardous marine and beach conditions will remain into Friday - Showers and storms increase in coverage this weekend into next week Now-Tonight...Breezy east-northeast winds this afternoon are accompanied by gusts around 20-25 mph at times. Partly cloudy conditions are letting through a good amount of sunshine, allowing temperatures to reach the upper 80s to low 90s. However, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected as we head into the evening. This is in association with a disturbance over the Atlantic, which is forecast to approach the northeast Florida and Georgia coast Friday morning. Satellite imagery shows a rather disorganized system with a couple areas of cooler cloud tops and associated rain showers. Drier air is working into the southern side of this area of low pressure and will continue to do so as moves northwestward tonight. Regardless of further development of AL92, PoPs will gradually increase from east to west into this evening, especially from Cape Canaveral northward along the Volusia County coast. Pockets of moderate to heavy downpours are expected and will continue intermittently through daybreak Friday. Embedded lightning storms are possible, primarily those that develop offshore and push toward the immediate coast. Winds are forecast to slowly decrease overnight but may remain breezy along the Volusia coast. In addition to rain and gradually decreasing winds, beach conditions will remain hazardous. A High Surf Advisory and high risk of rip currents remain in effect through late tonight, with the high risk for rip currents likely to be extended through at least tomorrow. Minor beach erosion is possible through tonight before winds begin to subside late. Friday...Shower activity associated with AL92 will linger through the morning hours, mainly over the northern half of the forecast area. Surface flow turns southerly and eventually backs to the southeast tomorrow afternoon as the east coast sea breeze tries to get going. Sufficient moisture will be in place to spark additional showers and isolated storms Friday afternoon. Coverage may be impacted by how much cloud debris holds over from morning rain, but a good deal of sunshine should break out over the southern two-thirds of the area. This results in highs warming into the 90s most everywhere, with the upper 80s holding on at the coast from the Cape northward. Isolated showers may stick around Friday night but most of the activity will wane in intensity after sunset. Low temperatures will fall into the mid 70s (upper 70s at the coast). Saturday-Wednesday...Saturday marks the beginning of increasing rain chances this weekend and into next week. Upper level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S., weakly influencing the overall pattern here in Florida. H500 falls across the southeast and Mid Atlantic are expected Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region. Surface flow will remain southerly, backing southeast during the afternoon as the sea breeze forms. Light flow becomes increasingly SSW through midweek next week. With PW around 2"+ through much of this period, expect at least scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening as sea breeze and storm- scale boundary collisions occur over the peninsula. PoPs go from 50-55 percent Saturday up to 60-70 percent later in the weekend and next week. The NBM remains a bit aggressive so forecast values still remain under that and some of the other medium range guidance. Regardless, this stretch of days could provide some additional, much needed rain for parts of the area. Temperatures through the extended stay warm, generally in the low 90s, with heat indices approaching 100-107. Nighttime temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions remain with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Breezy to gusty northeast winds persist as an approaching low pressure system brings rain and isolated lightning storms through Friday morning. Seas build up to 9 feet offshore, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Closer to the coast seas 5-7 ft are expected. Winds begin to subside from midnight onward as the Atlantic disturbance (AL92) begins to lift northwestward. Friday-Monday (modified previous)...By Friday morning, winds are forecast to be southeasterly. Seas subside through the day, becoming 4-6 ft by the afternoon. Scattered showers with a few embedded lightning storms are forecast through at least Friday morning, especially near and north of Cape Canaveral. Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining under 15 kts. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. However, greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore-moving convection each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 88 77 90 / 60 50 30 50 MCO 75 91 77 92 / 30 40 20 60 MLB 75 89 78 90 / 40 30 20 50 VRB 74 90 77 90 / 30 30 30 50 LEE 76 91 78 94 / 30 50 20 60 SFB 75 91 77 93 / 50 50 20 60 ORL 75 91 77 93 / 40 40 20 60 FPR 73 90 76 90 / 20 30 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Heil