507
FXUS62 KMLB 060820
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

-Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to
isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening.

-Hot conditions forecast today and through the weekend, with near
record highs and heat index values in the 100 to 107 range.

-Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend.

Today-Tonight...Hot and humid conditions return across the area
today, as ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic slides
southward across central FL and a mid level trough approaches from
the NW. This will lead to a low level S/SW flow becoming W/SW aloft,
pulling in increasing moisture across the area through the day. PW
values increase from around 1.5" in the morning up to 1.7-1.9" into
the afternoon. Low level winds remain weak enough for sea breeze
development, and showers and storms should increase across the area
from mid afternoon through sunset as sea breeze boundaries push
inland and eventually collide across east central Florida. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms should be able to form from these
interactions, aided by the approaching mid-level trough, and have
PoPs up to 50-70 percent across the region.

While the precipitation will be welcome with ongoing drought
conditions in place, some stronger storms will be possible. Model
guidance has temps aloft coming in a tad higher than what they were
showing 24 hours ago, with values around -8 to -9C at 500mb.
However, this will still be sufficient to produce the potential for
small hail, with isolated occurrences of hail up to quarter size
possible. DCAPE values of 1200-1500 J/kg may also support some
strong to locally damaging wind gusts up to 40-60 mph with any
stronger convection. Weaker steering winds may allow for some
locally heavy rainfall from this activity, around 1-3 inches as
well. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe
weather across much of east central FL. Greatest potential for any
severe storms will be focused from 3PM-9PM before this activity
gradually weakens and diminishes toward midnight.

With the increase in moisture comes a rise in the humidity values
today. Temperatures will continue their upward trend, with highs
above normal in the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid to upper
90s across the interior. The combination of the heat and humidity
will produce peak heat index values in the 102-107 range (close to
heat advisory criteria). As storms develop toward mid to late
afternoon, the increase in cloud cover and rainfall will be able to
provide some relief. Take extra precaution if participating in
outdoor activities today. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air
conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related
illness!

Friday...Another mid-level trough axis swings southward toward and
through the area Friday into Friday night, pushing the surface ridge
axis south of central FL and shifting a weak front toward north FL
late in the day. Low level winds will veer to the W/SW ahead of the
front, but remain weak enough for the east coast sea breeze to
develop and move inland. PW values will decrease slightly to 1.5-
1.7", but may increase some into late afternoon. Temps actually warm
aloft to around -7C at 500mb, and CAM guidance somewhat split on how
much convective development there will be into the afternoon. For
now have raised PoPs slightly to 40-50 percent, which is a little
more in line with MOS guidance compared to the NBM values, which
looks way too high. A few stronger storms could still be possible,
with the main threats being frequent lightning strikes and strong
wind gusts to 40-50 mph. Scattered showers and storms that develop
into the afternoon, will largely shift offshore into Friday evening,
with rain chances ending by midnight.

Hot conditions will prevail, but forecast highs trend down just by a
degree or two, but still near daily records, with values in the low
to mid 90s and heat index values reaching around 100-105. Overnight
lows are forecast to fall to the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Wednesday...Weak front will slide farther south nearing and
stalling near to just north of central FL into the early weekend
before this boundary fades. Drier air is forecast to filter into the
area during the weekend, lowering rain chances to 20-40 percent on
Saturday and 20-30 percent, mainly south of Orlando into Sunday.
These values are again more in line with MOS guidance then the NBM,
which has been running too high on PoPs lately. Hot conditions
continue into the weekend, as ridge aloft builds in from the west,
with near record highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index
values still around 100-105 each day.

Another front will approach and stall just northwest of the area
into early next week, with increasing moisture and rain chances.
There still remains some overall uncertainty on how quickly moisture
increases, but have shower and storm chances rising to 40-60 percent
on Monday to 60-70 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hot and humid
conditions forecast to continue into Monday, with highs still in the
mid to upper 90s and heat index values 102-107. Increasing coverage
of showers and storms through Tuesday and Wednesday, then have
forecast highs falling to the low 90s on Tuesday and upper 80s on
Wednesday. Lows remain in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
slides southward across the waters with lighter winds around 5-8
knots out of the S/SSW this morning, but eventually becoming SE and
increasing to 10-15 knots into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze forms and shifts inland.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across land
areas into the mid afternoon and through the evening from boundary
collisions across the interior. Much of this activity should remain
over land before it diminishes through late evening, but some storms
may be able to shift back toward the coast and offshore, especially
off of the Volusia/Brevard and Indian River coastline. Some strong
to isolated severe storms will be possible, producing wind gusts up
to 40-60 mph and small hail.

Winds veer southerly and remain elevated around 10-15 knots into the
evening, with winds continuing to veer to the W/SW overnight. Seas
will range from 2-3 feet.

Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into
late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north
Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into
the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the
period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the
S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be
possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and
storm chances begin to decrease into the weekend before rising once
again into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Thursday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist
across the area through late week, with sensitive to near
critical fire weather conditions into the weekend, as hot
conditions prevail and ongoing drought conditions persist. Minimum
RH values fall to the 40s across the interior this afternoon and
Friday afternoon. Rain chances increase today, with scattered to
numerous showers and storms forecast toward the mid to late
afternoon and into the evening. Strong to isolated severe storms
will be possible producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts
and coin-sized hail. Additional scattered showers and storms again
possible into Friday afternoon. An increase in lightning strikes
with this activity, may lead to additional brush fires.

Conditions then trend a little drier into the weekend, with Min RH
values falling to the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior on
Saturday and into the mid to upper 30s across the interior on
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be
possible each afternoon, but overall coverage is forecast to be
lower.

Highs forecast to remain above normal and near record values through
late week and into the weekend, with heat index values as high as
100-107.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Forecast high temperatures are expected to remain below record
values today, but there will be a better chance of tying or
breaking some record highs Friday and into the weekend.

Record high temperatures for today, June 6th:

DAB 6-Jun  100 1998
LEE 6-Jun  98 1998
SFB 6-Jun  101 1998
MCO 6-Jun  101 1927
MLB 6-Jun  101 1998
VRB 6-Jun  97 1998
FPR 6-Jun  100 1998

Record high temperatures for June 7th through the 9th:

DAB 7-Jun 97 1985     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 98 1981
LEE 7-Jun 96 2008     8-Jun  96 1985     9-Jun 98 1985
SFB 7-Jun 100 1998    8-Jun  97 1985     9-Jun 99 2006
MCO 7-Jun 98 1927     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 100 1907
MLB 7-Jun 95 2014     8-Jun  97 1980     9-Jun 97 1941
VRB 7-Jun 98 1986     8-Jun  95 1995     9-Jun 94 1994
FPR 7-Jun 95 1998     8-Jun  95 1949     9-Jun 96 1980

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions prevail through 20Z. Light S-SW flow will favor
the WCSB, reaching KLEE by 19Z and shifting winds to W at 10-15
kts. ECSB develops around 16Z, shifting winds at coastal
terminals to ESE-SE near 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Sea
breezes collide INVOF the I-4 terminals around 20Z, producing
SCT- NMRS TSRA. CIGS should remain VFR, but VIS reductions to
MVFR or lower likely in +TSRA. Added TEMPOs for TSRA impacts at or
after 20Z to TAFs from KISM north. Keeping KTIX-KSUA VCTS for
now, but will reevaluate TEMPOs for KTIX-KMLB in next package.
TSRA/SHRA clearing or pushing offshore by 00Z to the north and 03Z
to the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  72  94  73 /  60  30  50  10
MCO  97  74  95  76 /  60  30  50  10
MLB  93  72  92  74 /  50  40  50  20
VRB  93  72  93  73 /  50  40  50  20
LEE  96  75  94  76 /  50  20  40  10
SFB  97  74  96  75 /  60  20  50  10
ORL  97  75  95  76 /  60  30  50  10
FPR  94  71  94  73 /  50  40  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley