772
FXUS62 KMLB 100600
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR continue outside of convection this TAF period. FEW to SKC
will persist thru 16z-17z, before SCT low-mid level cu develop in
the presence of some high level clouds. VCTS beginning at most
sites 19z-20z with TEMPOs from MCO/SFB east to TIX/MLB for TSRA
and reduced VIS. Further CIG/VIS reductions to IFR and brief wind
gusts are likely. Outside of storms, WSW winds remain 10 kt or
less but back along the coast after 17z due to the ECSB. TSRA will
gradually decrease after 02z with VCSH still possible from MLB
south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Current-Overnight... Activity winding down this evening, with
scattered showers lingering across the Treasure coast. These
showers are expected to dissipate or move offshore over the next
hour or two. Showers and storms this afternoon and evening
concentrated across the south, mainly across the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee counties. These storms produced occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy
downpours.

Much like yesterday, hot and humid conditions continued today,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices of
102-108 degrees. Two climate sites reached record highs this
afternoon; Leesburg reached 98 degrees which tied their record
high (last set in 1985), and Vero Beach which reached 95 degrees
which broke their previous record of 94 degrees set in 1994.

Expect mostly dry conditions over land tonight, with isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms possible across the
Atlantic. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tonight...Southeasterly winds veer south into this evening and
increase up to 15-20 knots offshore. Small craft should exercise
caution if venturing into the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard
counties tonight. Winds gradually diminish overnight to 10 to 15
knots as they continue to veer to the west to southwest. Seas will
range from 1-3 feet.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) Increasing moisture,
especially from Tuesday onward, will lead to higher rain and
isolated storm chances into mid week. On Monday, W/SW winds back to
the SSE behind the sea breeze, increasing and veering SSW again
Monday night (especially over the Gulf Stream). More persistent SSW
flow on Tuesday will back to the SSE by Wednesday and Thursday.
Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected mid to
late week. Boating conditions deteriorate due to high rain and storm
chances, though seas outside of storms will generally remain 2-3 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Continued fire sensitive conditions continue Monday, as near record
heat continues and allows Min RH values to fall into the upper 30s
to low 40s, mainly across Lake and Volusia counties into the
afternoon. A gradual improvement to fire weather conditions is
expected then from Tuesday onward as moisture and subsequent rain
chances significantly increase. However, lightning strikes may lead
to additional fire starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  96  73  89  73 /  30  60  80  50
MCO  95  76  87  75 /  60  60  80  50
MLB  93  74  87  74 /  70  70  90  70
VRB  93  75  87  73 /  60  70  90  70
LEE  95  76  90  76 /  30  60  80  40
SFB  96  76  89  75 /  50  60  80  50
ORL  96  76  89  75 /  60  60  80  50
FPR  93  74  87  73 /  60  70  80  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper