597
FXUS62 KMLB 091705
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
105 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Curtailed VCTS to only the Treasure Coast terminals (VRB/FPR/SUA)
late this afternoon and early evening as ample dry air aloft will
stifle convective development over the Greater Orlando area today.
Near the coast, winds become ESE 5-12 KT through early evening with
WSW winds 5-10 KT over Greater Orlando. VFR prevails outside of
any isolated thunderstorm activity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Another hot day in store across the area, with temperatures
potentially reaching record values this afternoon. Highs are
forecast to reach the low to mid 90s along the coast, and into the
mid to upper 90s across the interior. A few inland spots may be
even be able to reach the 100 degree mark this afternoon. Drier
air will exist across areas near to north of Orlando, with more
humid conditions to the south where greater moisture and potential
for afternoon showers and storms exist. Peak heat index values to
108 to 110 still forecast where a Heat Advisory is in effect from
Orange, Osceola and Okeechobee counties, as well as mainland
Brevard County and inland portions of Indian River and St. Lucie
counties. Elsewhere, maximum heat index values are forecast to be
closer to 102 to 107 (still elevated but just below Heat Advisory
criteria).

If planning to be outdoors today, even for a short periods of
time, make sure to stay well hydrated and take frequent breaks in
shaded or air-conditioned spaces. This level of heat can affect
anyone without adequate hydration and effective cooling. Remember
to never leave children or pets behind in vehicles!

CAM guidance is still in pretty good agreement showing isolated
to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms
developing mainly near to south of a line from Orlando to the Cape
where GOES 16 TPW imagery shows PW values of 1.5-1.8 inches.
However, much of Lake and Volusia counties are likely to remain
dry where lower PW values around 1.3 inches exist, and have
therefore kept mentionable rain chances out of the forecast for
this area. Elsewhere, rain chances range from around 20 percent
across Orange, Seminole and northern Brevard counties, to 30-50
percent farther south. Greatest storm coverage will mostly be
confined to sea/lake breeze interactions near Lake Okeechobee and
across Osceola/Okeechobee counties later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today-Tonight...Westerly winds back to the southeast this
afternoon behind the east coast breeze (10-15 kt). Winds veer
again to the SSW tonight and approach 17-18 kt over the Gulf
Stream, before decreasing toward daybreak Monday. Isolated showers
and lightning storms are possible, mainly south of Cape Canaveral
and Sebastian Inlet. Seas 1-2 ft.

Monday-Thursday...Increasing moisture, especially from Tuesday
onward, will lead to higher rain and isolated storm chances into
mid week. On Monday, SW winds back to the SSE behind the sea
breeze, increasing and veering SSW again Monday night (especially
over the Gulf Stream). More persistent SSW flow on Tuesday will
back to the SSE by Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall are expected mid to late week. Boating
conditions deteriorate due to high rain and storm chances, though
seas outside of storms will generally remain 2-3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  97  74  90 /  10  40  40  70
MCO  76  95  75  87 /  10  50  50  80
MLB  75  94  74  89 /  20  70  60  80
VRB  75  94  73  89 /  30  70  60  80
LEE  75  96  76  91 /   0  40  40  70
SFB  75  97  76  90 /  10  50  40  70
ORL  77  97  76  89 /  10  50  50  70
FPR  74  94  73  88 /  30  70  60  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ045-053-058-247-
     254-259-347-547-647.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil